1/30/2026
As Trump starts his own Peace Group (uh what is Putin doing in a PeaceGroup?) he starves the UN.
Developing
Friday, January 30, 2026
Stocks and Metals Decline
1/30/2026
Stocks and Metals Decline
For months this column has warned of an over-heated market. As I write Friday morning, the Dow and NDX are off about 1%, the SPX about .75%. Go dl is down $460 today. This has happened before in January only to see a recovery but this time really does look different. A downtrend is forming and momentum indicators have turned to the downside. Real conformation will come with an SPX weekly close under the January 21 low around 6,800. Additional confirmation would be a NDX close under its January 21 low around 25,000.
Qualitative indicators of a positive social mood top abound. Here are a few.
This week the Trump Account was announced with quite a bang. This will award newborns 1,000 to invest in the stock and bond markets. I cannot find any word on where the money will be or how one invests. Or what keeps the parents from yanking the money out.
This summer two Republican and Democrat Senators introduced a bill to save social security by, you guessed it, investing in the stock and bond market.
Yesterday, Charles Payne, host of Making Money with Charles Pane, offered his book, Unbreakable Investor , for free. Well, you do have to pay the $9.95 shipping cost.
Mutual fund cash is at the lowest level since the 1960s.
All these actions are emblematic of how positive social mood forgets past events such as the dot.com melt down into 2002 or the sub-prime melt down o pf 2007-2009. Trump Accounts and investing social security money at those times would have been a great idea, but negative mood at those times made sure it did not happen.
Meanwhile look at the recent bankruptcy trends.
Saks sold $2.2 B in junk bonds in December 2024. Within months it was slow paying vendors. This month it filed for Chapter Bankruptcy protection.
Tricolor automobile business went poof into Chapter 7 liquidation overnight.
First Brand former CEO has been indicted for fraud by the Federal Government. First Brands received a $1.1 B injection earlier this month. But last week its legal department called game over without another $600 M. No one offered so now the auto companies needing those parts are supporting the firm. The Feds allege the Ceo factored fabricated invoices to buyers who now hold worthless paper.
Notice a pattern here?
Speaking of memory loss, Britain seems to have forgotten how Margaret Thatcher saved the country. A headline reads Britain is Committed to Stagnation. China struggles with deflation as the real estate market declines.
On the bright side, crude oil has moved to $64.61. Cold weather and the threat of attacks on Iran seem to be fueling the rise.
As the Sergeant used to say on Hill Street Blues, be careful out there.
professorelam@blogspot.com
Meet the CPA Firms Feb 6
1/30/2026
Meet The Firms – TXCPA San Antonio Student Auxiliary
Date: February 6, 2026
Time: 5:30–7:30 PM
Location: La Quinta 4431 Horizon Hill Blvd San Antonio, TX 78229
About the Event: Meet the Firms is a free networking event for students interested in accounting and business careers. Attendees will have the opportunity to meet firms that are currently hiring, explore career opportunities, make valuable professional connections, and engage directly with employers.
Cost: Free for students.
Student Membership: Students may join TXCPA as a student member for free. Learn more: https://www.tx.cpa/become-a-cpa/become-a-student-member
Event Registration: Register for the event here: https://www.tx.cpa/events/event-details/?eventId=50cf8369-0078-c298-9f9c-0b4902aa5637
Accommodation Statement: Persons with disabilities needing accommodations should contact student.life@tamusa.edu or (210) 784-1329 at least five to seven days in advance.
Thursday, January 29, 2026
Well Finally, A Serious Sell Off
1/29/2026
Closely examine these charts.The DOW sold off a bit the SPX, NDX NASD 100, SPX, NASD COMPQ sold off a great deal. I have been talking bout a top for weeks and months. I truly believe we are now there. The action is metals is not normal. there are serious geo political problems, Trump's insane insult to Canada et al, Ukraine, Diego Garcia yes really, see WSJ front page article on China deflation today. $5,000 gold and whatever silver is today is not a good sing. Trump says he is happy with the Dollar down 8%, hello Argentina.
We are at a confluence of events, top stocks, oh did you notice crude oil is now $65, drfense stocks are up, conflict is on the way,
More tomorrow, first my weekly colum, longer analysis this weekend.
Unbreakable Investor / Two Senators wPlan to Save social Secutiry
1/29/2026\
I pointed out yesterday that optimism abounds at market tops so now we see the creation of Trump Accounts so even babies can invest.
Two senators a Dem and a Republican have Two Senators Dem and GOP have an investing plan to save social security.The plan was proposed in July 2025.
- Senators Bill Cassidy and Tim Kaine published an opinion piece in The Washington Post on Tuesday describing a proposal they say could save Social Security.
- The senators proposed creating an additional fund that would be invested in stocks, bonds, and other investments, and generate a higher rate of return than the current trust funds.
- Some Social Security experts don't believe the program has the time this proposal requires, as the trust funds are estimated to be depleted by 2034
If my predictions of a market top in stocks are even remotely correct this would of course be a disaster. Government has a pattern of doing that like suing RCA in 1929, IBM in 1966, and MSFT in the last years of the Clinton administration. All instances preceeding market tops with the drop coming quickly thereafter. As said yesterday such ideas never hatch at the dot.com bottom in 2002 or the sub prime bottom in They only occur amid the euphoria of a mania top.
Charles Payne on FOX Business TV wants to make his Unbreakable Ivestor book free, well plus 9.95 shipping. He is so sure he is right he is offering it to all the viewers. Again, only at a market top.
Wednesday, January 28, 2026
Trump Accounts
Link for Tump Account1/28/2026
In an attempt not necesarily to win but not to lose the mid-terms. we have tax reduction and now Trump Accounts. The US govt will put a one time $1,000 into this account. Firms are stepping tup to add to the account, motably Michael Dell. It is not clear to me if this becomes say a Fidelityor Schwab account. I assume no withdrawals are possible. It is a buy the vote device.
This would be a great idea at the dot.com low of 2002 or the sub prime low of March 2009. But at DOW 50,000, not so much. Should the markets crater and I still think that is more likely this will not be well regarded, at least if people do anything other than T Bills.
Nothing much going on. Is that a message. The charts for the DOW look like distribution. THis means those who bought early are now selling to the late comers. They will even buy back to buoy the market keeping the idea of the bull alive a bit longer. And then finally they have sold eveything and are out leaving the late comers holding very over priced issues.
OK January looks like December. But seasonally the market rallies from mid December to mid January, we are there now. I have no futher upside targets.
February Silver
I wish I had been long bur a Karl Rove would say this is unsustainable. This is a parabolic rise and they all reverse in similar fashion.
Tuesday, January 27, 2026
Silver Spikes again
1/27/2026
Silver spiked again o #112. It recorded an inside day usually a sign of a continuation pattern. This straight up action suggest speculation laid on a lack of silver supply ( all those guys on the business channels finally luck out). No time to add. But with higher prices still expected will we get a sharp sell off to shake out the weak hands? Platinum and copper appear to be selling off and that does not bode well for gold and silver. Gold likes round numbers and we have one in $5,000.
DOW
Yes a gap down at the open after the last few days filled the gap form the 15th. Does it mean anything? NDX and SPX were up, th repo market purchases continue. I have no further targets.
I do think the next two weeks will tell the tale so to speak for the stock markets.
Monday, January 26, 2026
Divergences
1/26/2026
Yes the Dow was up 313 points today but a strange thing happened.
DWSH and HDGE, both bear funds were up
Breadth is narrowing
Gold and silver rose again, I do not believe in all my years of markets I have ever seen such a vertical climb. I have no upside targets and remain short.
67,800 year old cave painting
1/26/2026
A cave painting in Indonesia is estimated to be 67,800 years old
This is astonishing. It means that nothing much happened in terms of organized civilization until Persia and Egypt, a relative recent 5,500 yeas ago. Modern society dates from the Industrial Revolution, the railroad, and the telegraph. that meant we could travel and communicate over great distance. Just the last century commercial air flight occurred. Imagine how long people literally stumbled around just trying to find something to eat.
Sunday, January 25, 2026
Tricolor and First Brands evaporate overnight
1/25/2026
Tricolor went straight to Ch 7.
First Brands is not doing much better.
Jamie Dimon's Morgan Chase lost big on Tricolor, his comment when you see one cocka roach....
First Brands will die without a $600 M lifeline
Yes I would call that not much better.
First Brands begins winding down key units
After receiving a $1.1 B loan at the start of anuary, teh needed $600 M is not materializing
Notice how fast these two companies fell apart
First Brands Founder Indicted for Fraud
The entire scheme is falling apart, read all these posts do you see the order of what is happening.
Negative signs of Social Mood Over Hang the markets
1/25/2026
Markets finally turned in the summer of 1982. The long bear market of 1966 or 1973 to 1982 had finally ended. Even then the DOW was about 800, lower than the 1,000 tops of 1966 and 1973. Imterest rates were finally abating after their 36 year cycle high in 1981. See FED description her. An 11% unemployment rate, now that is negative mood! Today it is about 4.4%.
10$ CDs would soon be a think of the past. But rich dividends abounded in the stock market. Hence money began to flow from CDs to stocks.
At far right rates bottomed in March 1980 at .5% for the ten year Treasury. We are not in the sixth year or soon will be since then
lHere are a few negative signs.
NYC nurse strike in 14 th day.
Two shot and killed in Minneapolis, note Neither the Mayor or Governor is trying to calm thigs down, just the opposite. The WH cannot back down or it will never be able to enter another Dem controlled sanctuary city. Never mind whose side you are on we are tracking mood.
Severe storm across 35 states. Violent weather often accompanies a market high. In 1989 Japan had a typhoon, hurricane here as the market topped.
Her in San Antonio voters narrowly approved 52-48 $800 M for a $1.2 B basketball arena. A letter in the paper today questions the deal. This happened in 1929 when the tower Life building was completed.
the rest of the planned down town expansion was cancelled due to the Depression.
The Majestic Theater was completed that same summer. It was the largest theater in Texas and continued to be until 1975.
Canada's PM declares that small to medium nations need to create their own place at the table or end up on the menu, a clever phrase indeed. Trump of course threatened 100% tariffs. Regarding his Chinese foray, the PM replied he had to take the world as it is no as we want it to be.
hWhite House launches bid to save Melania movie. Melania will ring the bell to open the stock exchange one day this week, she will also appear on Maria Bartiromo's morning show.
tricolor went straight to CH 7 bankruptcy, like over nigth.
First Brands avoided CH 7 bt tanked as well.
Jamie Dimon commented when you see one cockaroach....
Two horror movies are no minated for best picture, Sinners with a record 16 nominations, and teh latest re make of Frankenstein. Exorcist was the dfirst horror film to be nominated for best pictuer.
It garnered ten no minations. And yes it won best picture. Nothing positive abut that or two no minated this year.
General Collateral Financing GCF is a repurchase agreement where the two parties do not know one another. This accounts for $5 trillion of the repo market. The idea is that Treasuries are used but the collateral is not specified. Gee that sounds just like the Archegos fraud which bankrupted Credit Suisse.
Multiple banks loaned Bill Hwang billions having no idea of his or their total exposure. He posted only 15% of the funds all else was borrowed. When CBS Viacom dropped more than 15%, he was wiped out. Morgan and Goldman got out that Friday, Credit Suisse was not so lucky.
We shall see how this unwinds.
Trevor Milton is a lot like Charlie Javice or Elizabeth Holmes
1/25/2026
Trevor Milton misrepresented Nicola trucks
Was Charlie Javice a good person who did bad things?
I will present the case in class this next Saturday and you can decide.
But the evidence suggests she new exactly what she was doing.
Elizabeth Holmes, I would have done things differently. But she still claims a failure is not a crime.
As we read various fraud cases you will see stark similarities between them. The Nidola, Frank, and Theranos cases are quite similar. CEOs falsely claiming something would work when clearly it did not.
Saturday, January 24, 2026
The Berkshire Hathway Website
1/24/2026
A Treasure Trove of information including all Warren's annual letters
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC.
3555 Farnam Street
Omaha, NE 68131
Official Home Page
Business Technology Websites
1/24/2026
IBM
This is a very interesting IBM site about all things business and technology.
IBM nearly went the way of Unisys but Lou Gerstner startingin April 1993 brought it back to life. \
IBM stayed with the main frames and then the first IBM MS DOS table top computer. They sat by and watched Bill Gates' MSFT dwarf IBM. Now much smaller than MSFT but now into more than just hardware. Another story on how successful firms get lost.
Nvidia
Alphabet - Google
Products but also lots of informaiton
Apple and MSFT were just sales sites
Palantir
Friday, January 23, 2026
Topping or Correcting?
1/23/2026
NVDA
Would you buy this stock now? Here is the hottest stock of the entire tech mania. Okay it fell into Liberation Day as did everything else. Momentum indicators RSI top and PMO are turning down not up. I have looked for a top for some time now. Metals have reached outer space territory, only Google is up from mid year among the Mag 7, thirty year bond is still well below its H & S neckline, the US Dollar is down again today by .85 of a point, after Lutnick's booed down performance, now wonder.
Venezuela is over, there might be a Ukraine deal, why on earth is Trump including Putin in his Peace Board, Greenland is over, we have the convergence of many things, oh yes Davos is over, see my previous post. All of these things are converging.
US Dollar
Silver, market in vertical position no further analysis is possible. SIlver options are at insane levels as gamblers bet on a continued rally. The correction will be swift and long lasting.
Nat Gas Spikes to $5.20.
1/23/2026
Nat Gas Spikes to $5.20
Natural gas began the week at $3.00. With the the prediction of an Arctic blast across 35 states natural gas leaped 66% to $5+. This takes out the resistance at the December high of $5. In 2022 gas hit $10. The cold weather is expected to last through January. Point being, prices could rise much higher. Gas prices are soaring across Europe as well.
Crude oil is rising but not as fast. Today March 2026 WTIC is up $1.72 to $61.07. This has also helped the energy service industry.
Halliburton HAL has jumped form $25 in late November to $35 today.
Schlumberger SLB in the same period has moved from $35 to $51. Both firms have been cutting costs and trimming employees. Halliburton has a forward price earnings ratio of 14 with Schlumberger at 16. In today’s frothy market this is most reasonable. Transocean has come alive rising to $4.86. The largest offshore driller in the world is trading at a bargain 64% of book value. It’s not a 1979 boom return for the Permian Basin but this looks like a big improvement.
Nobody feels secure in today’s world.
Serbia President Aleksandar Vucic
The White House claims Trump’s Davos appearance went well. Not so fast. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick addressed the group one evening. His remarks so stung participant s that EU Central Bank President Christine Lagarde walked out of the event. Lutnick was heckled and jeered to the point that the event was cut short, no dessert for this group! Trump went from threatening Europe with tariffs to backing off saying he had a framework for Greenland. He then claimed success at no cost. Translation, he is where he started which is being able to put bases anywhere in Greenland he wants. But trust has been fractured. This column could be filled with comments of various EU nations as all are wary of what Trump might do next. He seems to revel in chaos and disdains peace and quiet. He appears to prefer the gallon of vinegar to the spoon of honey.
QQ , the ETF for the NASD, made a significant spike low this week on the Tuesday sell-off. This suggests a bottom which can be traded. I have warned of a top but we are not there yet.
In hard times people like horror movies. Sinners, a combination of gangster, musical, and vampire horror has received 16 Academy nominations. This is higher than the fourteen garnered by three movies since the awards began. The latest re-make of Frankenstein has also been nominated for best movie. Markets are at all-time highs but mood is trending to the negative.
Dennis.elam@att.net
Thursday, January 22, 2026
TXCPA Scholarship / Meet the Firms
1/22/2026
Hello everyone,
I hope you and your families are prepared for this weekend’s weather. It is shaping up to be a cold one.
You are invited to join us on Thursday, January 29 at noon for our Accounting Careers & Education Committee Meeting. We are excited to kick off the new year with energy and fresh ideas.
A quick reminder that our
scholarship applications are still open. Please encourage eligible students to apply. For more information, click link below!
https://www.tx.cpa/sanantonio/students/scholarships
Also coming up on Friday, February 6 is our Meet the Firms event. If you know of any firms that would like to participate, please have them reach out to me by phone or email. Additional details are included in the attachment. PLEASE encourage students to sign up here for free!
https://www.tx.cpa/events/event-details/?eventId=50cf8369-0078-c298-9f9c-0b4902aa5637 On the attachment there are QR codes students can use also!
If you can make it, we are looking forward to seeing you on Thursday. Stay safe and warm this weekend!
Best,
Jennifer Jeanes
TXCPA San Antonio
830-431-1969
ACFE Scholarship
1/22/2026
|
|
|
|
|
Holmes and Hwang want out of jail
1/22/2026
Theraons founder Elizabeth Holmes asks for commutation.
Holmes was convicted of fraud in her failed Theranos lood testing scheme. Facing a trial, she quickly had two children. Now she wants out with six years left on her sentence.
Bill Hwang was sentenced to 18 years for his Archegos fraud.
Wednesday, January 21, 2026
A Volatile Day 1/21/2026
1/21/2026
Let's start with the most over extended market, silver.
this is a five day chart but note the drop in silver today after the earlier all time high. I think this is significant. Gold backed off its $100 open.
Bonds
Bond prices remain below the neckline I drew some time ago. Tsy Secy Bessent and Trump are not paying attention to the real market, the $37 trillion market. Recall interest rates bottomed and bond prices topped in March 2020. The 39 year cycle of rates is rising.
Stocks
The headlines and talk on cable tv tomorrow will be that stocks bounced back and erased losses. Not so fast. This is a thirty minute chart to show what really happened intra day. The market rallied, fell, and then rallied again to close the obious bap from yesterday. But then it fell again. Was this the top. We shall see.
NDX Tech stocks
The tech market also filled yesterday's gap. Notice the over sold RSI at yesterday's close so a snap back rally from the buy the dip crowd was necessary. I give up on calling a top but this is a persuasive case, see silver above.
dennis.elam@att.net
Tuesday, January 20, 2026
Stocks Slide over well, you name it!
1/19/2026
Greenland Prepares for US Invasion, as does Canada
A Republican Suggests Im[eaching Trump
This morning Tsy Secy Bessent was talking with Maria Bartiromo at Davos. He confidently said our the US relations with Europe have never been better. See above link comments at Davos. Bessent boasted of the money the US has spent on NATO saying they need to be under our, uh Greenland, umbrella. Take the gloves off Maria, don't tolerate such nonsense.
Gerard Baker in the WSJ had a great column today. He detailed how WW III had started, in Greenland. He observed that a country, see Ukraine, will take a lot of suffering before it gives up territory.
NYSE Advance Decline 195 minute
This includes all NYSE stocks and is an unweighted average. Clearly it is turning down.
I am amazed the averages were not down further today though they did fall further the last hour.
Welcome to Liberation Day II.
DOw INDU 195 minute
Here I am using exponential moving averages in a Fibonacci sequence, yes it works.
8,13,21,34 bar The sell off grew steeper as the day wore on, and as more remarks flew around the world.
Teh drop here was 1.76%, the drop in the NDX was more serious.
This was a 2.12% drop not a lot more but look at the gap in the last two 195 minute segments.
Tech lead the market up and will lead it down. It is the most over heated market.
And now the really important market, the bond market.
30 Year Bond
I read that Denmark pension funds sold all US bonds today. That is an idea that is likely to catch on across Europe. China has long been a buyer of US bonds, what if they dumped them all, in say one week, better yet, one day? Here is a look at what has already happened. Understand the bond market is far larger than the stock market, 37 trillion or there a bouts. Prices have been declining but today was a significant drop. Trump may understand real estate but he does not grasp his playing with fire in the US bond market.
TBF a bear bond fund. I have toyed with the idea of buying TBF but have not done so yet. well it's time. This is a clear buy signal.
The US Dollar
Again I am told Bessent is a Wall Street wiz, I don't see it. the dollar and the bond market are both down. So anyone holding bonds has a double whammy, bonds are down and the value of the bonds is also down. This is how major market melt downs begin.
Gold and silver soared today, I thought they were overbought but now what currency do you want to own, the dollar was down today, the new and as always, think the Three Wise Men, gold is back in vogue.
Meet the Firms Feb 6
1/20/2026
SA TXCPA is having a meeet the firms event Feb 6 5 30 - 7 30 at the Laquinta just north of north Loop 410 on the west side of I 10. The actual address is 4431 Horizon Hill BLvd but that is the street behind the La Quinta.
Dear Professors,
Welcome back to a new semester. I hope your first day is going smoothly and that you are settling in well. Hope everyone is prepared for the upcoming weather! BURR!
We are excited to share that TXCPA San Antonio will be hosting Meet the Firms for your students on February 6, 2026. This is a free event designed to connect students with local accounting firms, provide career insight, and help them build meaningful professional relationships.
We would greatly appreciate you sharing this opportunity with your classes or posting it on your course announcements.
Before students can register, they must first become a FREE TXCPA Student Member at this link:
https://www.tx.cpa/become-a-cpa/become-a-student-member
Once that step is complete, they can register for Meet the Firms here:
https://www.tx.cpa/events/event-details/?eventId=50cf8369-0078-c298-9f9c-0b4902aa5637
I’ve attached the event flyer for your reference as well that has QR codes on it if that helps students!
Thank you for your continued commitment to your students and for your partnership with our program throughout the years. Please feel free to reach out if you have any questions.
Best regards,
Jennifer Jeanes
Sunday, January 18, 2026
SPX Updae
1/18/2026
SPX momentum indicators look just as they did before the last big drop. That last drop was the Day of Liberation tariff Trump disaster. the clue was in late December when RSI PMO and MACD all topped and then began a downward slide. Now MACD, bottom, has turned down, PMO looks about to, RSI is losing momentum. Trump will appear at DAVOS Tuesday. When Clinton and Trump previously appeared to brag about the US stock market.
For Clinton it was January 2000, two months later the dot.com mania peaked and lost 75% of its value over the next two years.
For Trump, it was January 2018 and January 2020, the market dropped 20% and 38% in these two instances. Will history repeat? The markets are at new highs as they were then ,and as a Danish politician remarked, Trump does not understand how unpopular he is.
Markets are closed Monday for MLK day. Next update will be Tuesday
Artificial Intelligence - The Thinking Game
1/18/2026
The Thinking Game is a documentary on the development of Artificial General Intelligence.
There is an article on it in this weekend WSJ. The two guys who are not chemists, won the 2024 Nobel in chemistry for decoding protein.
60 Minutes Interviews Demis H on what's next for AI at Google Deepmind.
Bloomberg interview with Demis H.
This is the link to the firm Demis has founded
https://www.isomorphiclabs.com/
IBM Tech on AI 70 Year History
thisis a two part the second part link is after the end of this one
How to use the Astra App
Exploring London with the Astra app and glasses
Learn more here
deepmind.google/project-astra
The team that created Gemini Deep Research
Nvidia is a 2 trillion dollar company
Here are the AI portals
copilot.mcrosoft.com
deepmind.google.com
claude.com
Saturday, January 17, 2026
Bond Market Update
1/17/2026
Trump can put Mel Brooks as FED Chair but the pattern is clear, rates are rising.
This is a chart of the 30 yr bond price.There is a clear head and shoulders top pattern. Price has fallen tried to vault the neckline and failed , look for higher not lower yields and lower bond prices
TBF Bear Bond Fund
It has broken above the downtrend line, more updates this week
Silver Update 1/17/2026
The blue line is a simple 10 day moving average, it is now a parabola. RSI at top i maxes out and yes it is lower than at wave one or three, this is wave five and it should have less momentum. PMO at bottom has yet to turn down but it should do so this next week.
Gold exhibits the same pattern, momentum is waning.
Bill Clinton addressed Davos raving about the great stock market, circa 2000, It then tanked.
Trump did the same thing 201780 the DOW dropped 20%
Trump returns Jan 2020, market drops 38%
Now Trump returns Jan 2026 to crow again about the markets, let's see if history repets
Friday, January 16, 2026
New Market Highs
1/16/2026
New Market Highs
Speaking of highs…the cost of information is the lowest it has ever been since humans began walking on two legs, yet the cost of Education from K-12 to Higher Education is higher than ever. This is not sustainable.
Artificial Intelligence AI has been around in some form since the arrival of the electronic spreadsheet in the late 197.0s Grammar and spell check arrived in word documents in the early 1990s. Amart phones are now smart computers. But technology is not a linear function, it jumps in step-variable ways. AI is the latest big step up. Go to copilot.microsoft.com and ask for a story of your choosing. I asked for write the Carlie Javice story and got it in less than ten seconds. This is instant Wikipedia. Is this learning? It is if you read the article and understand it. If you just hand it in as your work, not so much.
People are living much longer and need more care. Social Security will be out of funds by 2033. Roads and bridges need repair. The US Navy is woefully inadequate compared to China’s growing fleet. Something has to give. Mississippi has leaped above most states in K-12 wihtout spending lots of money. Big changes are coming to education.
Despite all the hub bub over Venezuela, oil prices are still around 60. Trump claims he is running Venezuela. No doubt that is music to the ears the thugs left in place after the Madero snatch. Cuba has played the game o f modest prison release and then more arrests for years. That playbook is now in place. But Trump thought he had a buddy iun Putin as well, how is that turning out?
Stock and metals markets are at new highs. Silver has made the biggest advance since the Hunt Silver Thursday of 1979. January 2, 1979 silver cost $6.08 and ounce. By January 18, 1980, silver waws $50.35. The Hunt brothers had accumulated massive future positions of silver using margin financing. Rather than closing the contracts, they asked for delivery. There was not enough silver to meet that demand, hence the rapid price increase. Gold also reached $850 an once that day. The Comex Exchange passed Silver Rule 7 restricting margin purchases. The Hunts eventually took bankruptcy. The difference then and now is that there are no Hunt Brothers trying to corner the market. And prices have remained stubbornly high, off only $5 today.
One can say the same of the stock market which is at new highs. Yes markets are overbought on number of measures. Dividend yields of 1.4$ and price to sales ratios of 3.5 to one. The NYSE advance decline line has reached another new high as it did in 1929 and 1973. Dramatic declines followed. We shall see if history repeats.
Dennis.elam@att.net
Wednesday, January 14, 2026
The Everready Bunny Market
1/14/2026
I give up on calling a stock market top. There is the chance of yet another high.
The two hour chart bottomed and turned up, sigh.
Oil rallied but I have no rationale for that.
See my earlier post on silver. I still think metals and stocks will retreat in tandem, sigh. This is why I am in T Bills.
This is not a political blog. But incidents like these can make a market top.
Accounting Certifications
1/14/2026
The decisions senior and graduate accounting make and DO NOT MAKE at this time will determine their career destiny the rest of their lives. I maintain that independent certifications have trumped masters degrees. I begin with what I would call intro certifications. These are attainable by an accounting student with application to the study material. They consist of one exam.
Certified Internal Audit Practitioner
https://www.theiia.org/en/certifications/iap/
Financial and Managerial Accounting Associate
https://www.imanet.org/en/IMA-Certifications/FMAA-Certification
https://www.gleim.com/fmaa-review/
_______________________________
Now we move on to the far more difficult multi-part exams.
Gleim offers free downloads on several exams so I am linking to them
They are free and quite informative
Certified Public Accountant - the Granddaddy of certs CPA
https://www.gleim.com/cpa-review/exam-guide/
San Antonio CPA Chapter
https://www.tx.cpa/sanantonio/about
Certified Internal Auditor CIA
https://www.theiia.org/en/certifications/cia/
https://www.gleim.com/cia-review/resources/cia-certification/
San Antonio Chapter
https://www.theiia.org/en/chapters/united-states/texas/san-antonio/
Certified Management Accountant CMA
https://www.imanet.org/en/IMA-Certifications/CMA-Certification
https://www.gleim.com/cma-review/about-cma-certification/
San Antonio Chapter
https://sanantonio.imanet.org/home?ssopc=1
Enrolled Agent EA
https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/enrolled-agents/enrolled-agent-information
https://www.gleim.com/enrolled-agent-review/about-ea-exam/
San Antonio Chapter
https://txsea.org/Jalapeno_Chapter
Certified Information Systems Auditor CISA
https://www.isaca.org/credentialing/cisa
https://engage.isaca.org/sanantoniochapter/about/aboutchapter
Certified Valuation Analyst CVA
https://www.nacva.com/cva
Certified Fraud Examiner
https://www.acfe.com/cfe-credential
San Antonio Chapter
https://acfesanantonio.org/
Certified Government Financial Manager CGFM
https://www.agacgfm.org/cgfm-certification/
San Antonio Chapter
https://alamoareacouncilofgoverments.docu.team/mtiodew/index.php?store=12423
In case you wonder if my list is really complete I am listing the following sites
and as a sign of our times, yes there really is
Certified Divorce Financial Analyst
https://institutedfa.com/about-cdfa-course/
Best Accounting Certifications in 2026
https://thecfoclub.com/career/best-accounting-certifications/
ttps://www.indeed.com/career-advice/career-development/accounting-certifications
https://www.accounting.com/certifications/overview/
https://big4accountingfirms.org/accounting-certifications/
Silver to Gold Multi Year High
1/14/2026
Top to Bottom
RSI is above 70 as with al theses indicators the highest in 7 years
Silver Gold ratio, the same
MACD has reached the same peak as it did in 2021 which marked a high
Silver price is parabolic
This has o occurred once before when the Hunt Brothers literally cornered the entire silver market.
The Hunt brothers took on positions larger than the available actual silver at the COMEX
Rather than close out the contracts at a high price, they demanded delivery and had the money to cover
With not enough silver to deliver, price skyrocketed to $50, from Jan 1to Jan 18
The exchange did not appreciate this little stunt and it did not end well for the brothers
Here is the chart and a comparison to today
Read the Silver Thurday story here
Most Dangerous Market in History
1/14/2026
https://www.elliottwave.com/free/most-dangerous-market-in-history-18-flashing-red-charts/
This requires a log in to My Ewi, an account you create, it is free, no credit card required.
The 18 charts are amazing take a look.
DOW 50,000, Not so Fast
1/14/2026
This is Spencer Jakab in today's WSJ. He notes when the DOW has hit resistance with round numbers in the past.
📉 This is an online version of my Markets A.M. newsletter. Get investing insights in your inbox each weekday by signing up here. 📧
Big market milestones aren’t something to hang your hat on—unless they literally involve a hat.
It was nearly 27 years ago that New York Stock Exchange officials tossed “Dow 10,000” baseball caps onto the trading floor to commemorate the index reaching that level for the first time. NYSE boss Richard Grasso even signed a few, and one was quickly sold on eBay for $260.
“I'm disappointed that people are profiting from the sale of the hats,” said the exchange's senior vice president of communications at the time.
That’s why he wasn’t vice president of markets: It was a smart trade. Replicas were soon sold to employees of this newspaper for just $10. And the index? Stocks would enter a bear market a year later, and the Dow wouldn't remain sustainably above that barrier until 2010 (after more than 60 attempts).
The long wait to cross a round number bears thinking about as the Dow sits on the cusp of 50000. While there’s nothing magical about them, milestones exert a psychological pull and often seem to be breached when stocks are frothy.
The Dow probably crossed 1000 points during a trading session back in 1966’s “Go-Go” market. (Computers weren’t as efficient so observers aren’t sure). It first closed above that level much later, in 1972, when the “Nifty Fifty,” that era’s Magnificent Seven, peaked. Cue a nasty bear market in 1973.
The Dow couldn’t sustain four digits until 1982. The long wait was dubbed “quadraphobia,” according to Journal columnist Jason Zweig.
Whether it technically took 10 years or 16, that’s bad. But it was child’s play compared with the original big number: 100 points. The Dow got there a century ago yesterday, as readers of our “This Day in Markets History” segment will recall. Two world wars and the Great Depression repeatedly pushed it back. The index last moved past 100 points in 1942.
What 1906, 1972 and 1999 had in common is that they preceded severe bear markets during times of intense public interest in the stock market. The final crossings occurred at times of deep pessimism when nobody was wearing hats, except maybe ironically.
By every measure, this is one of the exuberant times. Stocks have almost never been as expensive based on reliable long-term measures. As a share of Americans’ household wealth, they’re even more important than in 1929 or 2000.
Dow 100000 may take a while, so savor this moment. It’s a lot more fun the first time than the 60th.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)