Clouds on the Horizoh

 4/10/2026

Clouds on the Horizon

The US and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire, but economic warfare is here to stay.

Iran flexes Its Muscles, WSJ today

If one had no knowledge of the last few weeks, reading the press reports today would give on no clue as to the Israel and US attack on Iran. Now Iran wants to run a ‘toll booth’ on ships crossing the Hormuz Strait. Worse, Trump suggested the US and Iran might partner on this, an idea  the White House later denied.

There is a parallel to the US situation in 1973-74. The Stock Market had just hit new highs, then as now.  Interest rates were rising. The country was reeling from the energy shock of the first Arab embargo. The President was unpopular with the press and the country was politically divided. Nixon had a written enemies list. The Democrats finally pounced on the accidental admission Nixon taped Oval Office conversations. Nixon never recovered finally resigning rather than face impeachment. History never exactly repeats but consider recent events.

·      During a Ford plant visit January 13, trump replied to an auto worker comment with a vulgar hand gesture and a four-letter comment. Trump later rejects Ford’s plea for aluminum tariff relief.

·      Trump fires AG Bondie for failing to legally pursue his enemies.

·      On Easter Sunday Trump referred to Iran as ‘crazy bastards’ again invoking vulgar remarks regarding the Hormuz Strait. Yes, the same country he suggested partnering with a week later to share Hormuz tolls.

·      Trump threatens to wipe out the entire Iranian civilization.

·      On cue, Democrats file articles of impeachment against both President trump and SecDef Hegseth.

·       For good measure, Democrats call for the President’s removal via the 25^th Amendment.

In 973, the markets held up for several months and then began a relentless trudge to a 50% loss at Dow 577 by December, 1974.

All this has a familiar ring to me. Few if any of today’s financial advisors experienced this negative bout of social mood.

The stock market has managed a re-bound from the ‘military attack’ sell-off of 10%. It is remarkable that the markets are this high amid $100 oil. While August oil futures trade in the low $80s, uncertainty about the Middle East remains even higher than usual.

 The six weeks of military action have ended. Republicans facing mid-term elections have apparently begged for a halt in the fighting. And so here we are.

Thirty-year bond prices have fallen from 1181 to 112 and like stocks, have rebounded a  couple of points. It It is hard to see the FED justifying a rate cut amid $100 oil prices. That oil price uncertainty is likely to last for some time.

Trump mis-took the ease of removing Venezuela’s Maduro with  re-making a 6,000 year-old Persian Empire.

Caution is advised.

 

Oil and Stocks Rise

 4/9/2026

Crude oil is back up $5 to $99, yet stocks rose a half percentage point, just goes to show the wave theory has validity.  Stocks gained 1,200 DOW points on a drop in oil but rose again on a rise in oil.

If anything, the danger to the US from Iran is now much higher given their desire for revenge. Trump seems to have mistaken snatching Maduro same as snatching an entire country. Leaving the Iran regime in power is quite dangerous. 

My view is unchanged, wave two up in stocks could already be done, it should not last much longer. 

Oil is expensive here though we have plenty due to arbitrage. If oil were $65 here, tankers from the rest of the world would line up to by, it's a global market.  

 

More this weekend.  

Wave Two Opens Higher

 4/8/2026

OK, analysis, I should have gone aggressively short on the move down from all time highs, the crossover of PMO and drop of RSI. Given Trump ultimatum, no trade would have been better yesterday but a small addition not big loss. 

 In fact the upside occurred in Globex before the market openned in the US. No real follow thru, lots of short covering. Now RSI and PMO are near max, more possible but...

Now what Donald?  Iran can claim to have lasted the Great Satan, still in control of Hormuz, and can send rockets  to its neighbors? And now there is a two week window  for Iran to recover.

NDX Reistance

 the red line should mark a resistance area before the rally ends. 

Bond prices rallied a bit along with stocks. Bond and stock prices will resume their downtrends, patience.

I don't see trying gold and silver at this point. 

Do not believe calm has returned, check out this NBC report.  Those readers old enough to recall Watergate, can see echoes of that sentiment here. While the Republican controlled Senate will not likely vote to convict and I doubt the narrow control House will,  imagine  the Dems controlling both Houses after November.  My map for 226-227 is in fact  1973-74 where the DOW dropped 50% in two years.

___________ 

 

More than 70 lawmakers, including a handful of senators, said in separate social media posts that Trump's Cabinet needs to invoke the 25th Amendment to the Constitution and declare him unfit to serve, Congress should impeach and convict him, or both.

"The House and Senate must return to session. The House must pass articles of impeachment, and then the Senate must vote to convict and remove the President. Or, the cabinet and Vice President, with congressional concurrence, must invoke the 25th Amendment and remove Trump," Sen. Ed Markey, D-Mass., wrote in a statement on X.

Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., said he agreed with calls to invoke the 25th Amendment, adding: “No President in control of his senses would publicly promise to eradicate an entire civilization.”

wmT Update / Wave Two Ending

 4/7/2026

Sure glad I watched WMT from the sideline. After amazing growth the last five years

WMT tanked four bucks today. 

 

OK WMT is going to digital tags and the stock tanks, more likely long term profit taking. 

SPX

 I added short positions and more orders under the market. Lore has it that there is alwaus a fundamental event to justify the technicals, the technicals are saying sell, at least I think so. Here are some fundamentals

Profanity laced threat by Trump Easter Day

Military Action in Mid East upsetting idea that investing and living there is safe

Bernie Sanders wants to regulate AI - I saw a 65 inch flat TV in WMT today for $328, imagine what it would cost if Bernie were in charge of fair pricing for the working man's TV

Iran has placed women and children around sites Trump threatens to bomb 

EU is kinda sorta trying to help the Iran action

Oil is $114, gasoline $4 a rising, don't buy the story it will collapse when Hormuz clears

 DHS is unfunded

There is a shortage of computer chips

Interest rates are rising

Federal fraud in medicare, hospice, autism, 

Sh is short SPX, I added at market and placed orders at lower prices

If wave three down is confirmed this week, I will add more short positions 

 

  

  

 

 

 

Pizza

 4/6/2026

ONe does not go out of business because of poor pizza

 

It is always cash flow. Gna Maries 

Junk Bond Investors Head for Exits

 4/6/2026

Junk Bond Warning 

Higher Junk Yields are a sign junk investors are worried, junk bonds are as my friends as EWI say, stocks in drag, hmm. Wave Two in stocks should top this week 

 

Wave Two Continues

 4/6/2026

Wave Two up i major stock indexes continues, not done yet.

The move up in bond yields has been slow but is on track

No comment on oil or silver I have no positions there.  

Wave two Completing

 4/5/2026

I ran a comment that one fund manager looks at the WMT versus luxury goods indicator. When  WMT was outpacing luxury, often a recession looms. I tried that with LVMH but it is too erratic a stock, boy how is it, so i used Ralph Lauren RL  really a more broad based consumer oriented firm I own RL polos but nothing from LVMH. 

 

WMT began to outpace RL in late 2025. This makes sense as  the NDX roped 10/29/2026 and then the SOX 1/28/2026 and INDU 2/10/226. Once time passed 2/10 the move up accelerates, amazing how this stuff works, eh?

WMT has doubled in the last two years and is still climbing.  Daily has sold off and looks like a bottom Dillards DDS  has been aspectacular performer and is now bottoming

Other candidates include Starbucks SBUX,  Tractor Supply TXCO,  Home Depot HD has not turned up yet but bears watching. It could be that all these are good buy and write a call option for income and protection. 

okay how about XRT the retail ETF

 

RSI at top is rising and the slower PMO at bottom  is as well. The MAs have crossed, sure looks like a bottom. 

the majors suggest retail is just having its own Wave Two, we shaell see this week.  

Now let's look at the majors

 INDU in large panel looks like a Wave Two counter trend will fail at the 50 day MA. 200 MA is trending down, same for SPX and NDX top and bottom.

Media is now referring to this as Trump's War, Peggy Noonan in her weekend column makes the case Trump olays this like a real estate deal quoting from Art of the Deal. Shes right and it  is not reassuring.  Why he chose to do this before the mid-terms,well,  Republicans are worrying. 

I will keep uodating frequently as it looks like a turn to the downside.  

 

Oil Sopikes

 4/3/2026

Energy Prices Spike

 

The cost of U.S. crude oil continued pushing higher to more than $111 per barrel, up nearly 12% since Wednesday, its biggest one-day price jump in six years. For the year, it's now up 94%.

NBC News April 2, 2026

Today, Friday Apri 3, 2026, May West Texas Crude is $112.06, up   $11.94 since Thursday.  Trump’s speech Wednesday night offered continued fighting while Iran denies the existence of any talks. Distant oil futures  continue to take the short -erm volatility in stride. November 2026 WTIC is trading for $73.24, up a mere 86 cents from Thursday.

One might think the administration would want to exhibit a steady as she goes appearance in the midst of ‘the military action.’ That is not the case. Defense Secretary Hegseth has fired Army Chief of Staff General Randy George, General David Hodne, and Major General William Green Jr.  green was head of the Arm’s Chaplain Corps. Apparently there is no safety for ministers either.

The DOW fell over 600 points following Trump’s talk and then recovered most of the loss. Today markets are little changed.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports 178,000 jobs added in March. That is better than the 133,000 jobs reported lost in February.  Most of the job gains were in health care.

The Dow remains 4,000 points below its February 10 high. The SPX and NDX are also below all-time highs.

While the Military Action and the Artemis space shot dominate the news, elsewhere there are problems GM sales fell 9.7% in the first quarter, the most in four years. Higher interest rates and gasoline prices seem to have buyers sidelined. Exxon Mobil’s touted biofuel algae program is not delivering the promised results.

The latest sure-fire idea for your portfolio is also having difficulties. Private Equity, funds invested in non-public enterprises, was touted as the next big thing. But seems investors are having trouble redeeming as much as they would like. Such funds are illiquid and cannot be returned on demand.  In the last year Blue Owl has dropped from $20 to $8.57.

Mortgage rates have risen to 6.46%, impacting home sales.  The Ten -Year Treasury Note yields 4.3%. Our prediction is that it will rise above the previous high of 5.03%

Elon Musk Space X plans a fall IPO on his birthday.  The plan is to raise more than $75 billion. This may result is a market capitalization of $1.75 trillion. That would surely set a record for IPOs.  New market highs spawn ambitious projects. This will be one to watch, a stellar valuation indeed.

www.professorelam.blogspot.com

 

Value Line Geometric ,Equal Weight, Makes a Stand

 4/2/2026

 I drew in the blue neckline months ago, and the XVG is making a stand right here. 

And adding to the confusion, WMT is doing the same, do we need to go long? Maybe

WMT is a proxy stock for the entire market and it looks like a screaming buy,  readers I am not married to one idea.

 

 I added the 50 day MA, notice it tested and rebounded right there, See PMO bottoming in lower panel. 

If this were easy we would not need a day job... 

 

Gleim Review Mterial forTAMUSA Students

 4/2/2026

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A Perfect Socio Moment - See last night blog comment

 4/2/2026

 

Oil surges and US stock futures fall after Trump offers no clear timeline to end war in Iran

Jake Conley, Breaking Business News Reporter

Updated Thu, April 2, 2026 at 6:22 AM CDT

2 min read

Add Yahoo as a preferred source to see more of our storie\\

 

Trump talks at top of counter trend wave two withj predictable results 

 

I suggested last night that it would be a prefect sociomonic moment if the markets fell, stocks or rose, oil, after his remarks. This speech should have preceeded the Iran attacks not come trying to salvage some support from the American public and the EU.

 

Now switch to page B 12 of today's WSJ for more on the socio moment.

 

Stock Market Rally Enters Day Two

 

No one on Wall St wants to be on the wrong side ofa  post war rally.

Stock market climed in advance of Trump speech (how did teh two authors know that?) up 10.2% up .7% blah blah..faith in economic resilience and hedging (show me an average investor ho is hedging)  and of course, traders don't want to miss out, FOMO, reading hte tea leaves, the war won't pumel the bull case, oil prices slipped Wdnesday  (but not Thursday) widely divergent scenarios, investors scrambling to protect themselves

 

Okay that was edited but you get therift, the authors are clueless as to what is going on, grasping to link market action with some physical event

 

Readers of this blog will not be scrambling as we have a method called the Elliott Wave. this alerted us to a short term trend change Friday and an impending short term top which happened even faster than i imagined. 

 

The larger Wave 3 down has begun, see my list of bear funds yesterday and start buying.

Well the hourly chart has already bounced back giving a better bear buy, let's see what happens this afternoon.

 

 

dennis.elam@att.net 

 

 

 

Counter Trend Rally nears End

 4/1/026

the large panel is a textbok example of a five wave decline and then an A B C Wave 2 rebound. The rebound has been strong, typical of bear markets

 

PSQ short the NDX 100 or QQ has retraced a FIB 38% of its rally.  Wave three up for bear fnds and Wave three down for major market indexes should begin soon.  From a social mood standpoint, Trump's speech tonight might be a perfect kick-off to a third wave down in the markets, the exact opposite of what he hopes for.  despite all the targeting, Iran still controls the Strait. And he failed to get Allies or the American pubic on board. Now Allies balk and the public is angry at Mr.  I will lower gasoline prices and stay out of foreign wars. 

Here are the bear funds, I will recommend a strong position on a reversal in these markets

Bear Funds

Symbol            Name

HDGE            Hedge

PSQ              short NDX

DWSH          Dwight                Short NASD

RWM            Short Russell 2000

Bond prices have yet to really crack, let' see if the next move gets things going

Silver is too erratic to invest. 

Wal Mart WMT is a bell weather stock to watch, it has been spectacular the last year, weakness will be further bear confirmation. 

 

 

The Wal Mart Recession Indicator

 4/1/2026

Forget the Jobs Report, Look to the WMT INdicator 

This indicator is a ration of WMT stock versus a basket of luxury goods makers. When a recession looms, WMT outpaces luxury, as it is doing now.

In 1929 San Antonio cheered its first sky scraper and Texas Largest Movie Theater, the Majestic. The tower Life building was to be the start of  larger complex of office, retail, and aparments, all downtown. The ensuing downturn cancelled all of it. Now SA is booming with downtown projects again including a  $160 M Double A baseball park and you name it, UTSA expansion, apartments, here we go again?