Counter Trend Rally Ending NDX

 2/21/2026

NDX tech led on the way up. It is ahead of INDU and SPX on the way down. INDU is the last hold out because it has the least concentration of tech stocks. NDX with the most has fallen further than the other two for that reason. 

 I drew the red line a few posts back. NDX has now returned to the prvious peak a few days ago. The red arrows at RSI and PMO suggest a top in these momentum indicators. Notice PMO made a much higher high back on the final high of Jan 26. 

PSQ is the opposite of NDX. Its indicator should be bottoming that is RSI and PMO, Here is PSQ with the same indicators in the same time frame, one month, in an hourly the same chart.

PMO at bottom and RSI at top look like they are about to turn up. One should start scaling in purchase of PSQ. 

Bonds

See previous post on bonds. It appears the long correction of the move up in yields from March 2020 is ending in a long fourth wave. this makes sense when viewed with the NDX above. If stock price are about to fall, bond prices should do the same. After the final low in the stock market in 1982 prices began slowly rising. But they did not really take off until 1984. And that is when bond prices really began rising and yields began falling.  We are now in exactly the opposite situation. And no wonder, 1984 was four years out from the yield high in 1980-81. We are five years out from the yield low in March 2020. The rise from .5% to 4.2% in the ten year T Note has been dramatic. Trump would like to turn back the bond  cycle buy neither he nor Marsh, if appointed, can do so.  Hint to Marsh, there is still time to just say no and avoid the career wreck. 

In previous posts note that Saks 2.2B bond offering in Dec 2024 went officially bust in Jan 2026, wow that was quick. Tricolor, bust overnight. First Brands on life support via the car companies. Thomson luxury hotel in SA opened, whoops  that covid thing, in 2021. Despite two  cash injections, it will be sold on the Bexar Courthouse steps March 3. J P Morgan lost $170 M on Tricolor and another $175M on Charlie Javice Fank fraud. Now on the hook for her 'legal expenses' up to  $74M and counting. See a pattern here? 

 Oh and then there is Blue Owl private equity halting redemptions. Think a financial version of the TV ad for the roach motel. You can check in but you cannot check out.  Blue Owl suspends regular buy backs .Investors, read pigeons, will now receive orderly liquidations, return of their money, if and when Owl manages to sell more assets which they did this week. Gee, just a few months ago investors were going to hit the big time with private equity. Translation, an exchange with no ticker tape.  Ares and KKR down 8 and 12% in one day. 

Senator Elizabeth Warren utilized a "cockroach" metaphor on February 19, 2026, suggesting that Blue Owl’s troubles are just the first visible sign of a much larger infestation in the $1.7 trillion shadow banking system. She has called for immediate federal stress tests on private credit exposures, a move that could lead to tighter capital requirements for firms like Blue Owl and Apollo. 

This is how bear markets start, from great to uh oh seemingly overnight.