Toshiba Fraud

 11/30/2025

Toshiba earnings fraud not revealed by EY who is fined twice its annual revenue from the audit 

Is the College Degree Worth It, now Americans say No

 11/28/2025

Is the Degree Worth It?

Information is less expensive than since humanoids began walking on two feet.

But Higher Ed is more expensive than ever, WHY

I should start working on my book to answer this question.

Higher Ed has taken government money and built luxurious castles and salaries. Learning, not so much. 

Worth it?

RSI is Not Oversold

 11/28/2025

I received a graph from Fidelity, which I cannot locate now, claiming the Relative Strength Index RSI was oversold, ie, this is a market buy. Huh I wondered and checked my own graph.

Here is the 2 year weekly SPX with RSI at top and momentum indicators Price Momentum Oscillator PMO and Moving Average Convergence Divergence at bottom/

 I added the arrows to show the similarity before the Trump Tariff Dump in April and now.  Remember this is a weekly not daily chart, and this is the end of the week. 

That said, this was an unusual week for a Thanksgiving Holiday.  Usually volume and activity tapers off by Wednesday. This week Friday is a shortened trading day and after the Holiday so I did not expect much, I was wrong. 

SPX last three months 195 minute, three bars to the day

 SPX has risen back to the Nov 12 high. Unless it changes direction Monday, it will be targeting the lat Oct high. If that is reached, late Oct was a third wave and we have more to go to the upside. 

The NDX has lead the markets higher but was not as strong as the SPX this week.

 The moving average. blue line, in all is a 50 bar MA. I don't know what else to say other than we shall see what happens next week. 
 

Landman

 11/26/2025

 

Everyone is Tuned to the Permian Basin

Paramount+ says the Landman  Season 2 premiere on November 16, 2025 drew over 9.2 million global streaming views in its first two days, making it the most‑watched premiere in Paramount+ history. That represents a 262% increase over the Season 1 debut.

I Love Lucy became the most-watched show in the United States in four of its six seasons and it was the first to end its run at the top of the Nielsen ratings.

Every situation TV show follows the format of the show that set the standard. I Love Lucy. Lucy ran for 180 half hour shows for six seasons. It had later variations but none matched the success of the original. The theme of the show was the battle of the sexes. The writers ran to, not away, from Ricky’s Cuban accent, even going Spanish when he lost patience with Lucy’s antics.  The show often featured Lucy and neighbor Ethel in wacky, improbable situations, hence the term, situation comedy.

Seventy-five years later we have Landnan about a field supervisor who is not a Landman but who cares. I don’t have the space to explain the oil field technical errors but again, this is entertainment. The language would have Lucy and Ethel blush, welcome to on-line streaming.

Angel, Tommy’s wife, and Anisley, daughter, are the echo of Lucy and Ethel. Without them this would just be men in the oilfield and how funny would that be?  And to be current, Ariana (present day Ricky) is the love interest of Tommy’s son, Cooper. Ainsley’s interview with the TCU admissions’ lady is an instant classic in the league of Lucy and Ethel at the candy factory. The same is true of the Old Folks’ Police encounter with Angela and Ainsley at the Assisted Living Center. Angela is Taylor Sheridan’s (writer and creator) echo of Beth in the Yellowstone series. Angel and Beth, aka Lucy,  are both over the top women, more than their men can handle. I read that Taylor created Landman with Billy Bob Thornton as Tommy Noris in mind, and it works to a T. The cast is outstanding, like Carol Burnett’s six-year show. with Demi Moore, Andy Garcia, and Sam Elliott round out the cast.

Andy Warhol observed that eventually we all get our fifteen minutes. Basin, your fifteen minutes is here, sit back and enjoy while it lasts.

Crude oil has fallen below $60 but is still range bound between $55 and $65.  The DOW rebounded further than expected this week. Today’s extreme is stretched on the hourly chart and should end as predicted this week. Yet 42% of stocks in the S&P 500 and 54% of the NASDAQ 100 were in “official” bear markets (i.e. down 20% from their 52-week highs) last Thursday (November 20).

 Rallies prior to holidays are common. The ten-year note yield is 4%, still above the recent 3.95% low.  The FED seems divided on another rate cut.

Consumer Confidence Drops

11/25/2025

The drop in consumer confidence does not square with the market rally today. The explanation is that this is a wave two rebound. Counter trend rallies are fierce in bear markets and this one lives up to the reputation. But the days before a holiday are usually upbeat as this one is. 

Who needs the BLS when we have the ADP report?

 Trump can fire the latest BLS exec but he can't run from the truth, see below and click above for article.

The U.S. labor market is showing further signs of weakening as the pace of layoffs has picked up over the past four weeks, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Tuesday.

Private companies lost an average of 13,500 jobs a week over the past four weeks, ADP said as part of a running update it has been providing. That’s an acceleration from the 2,500 jobs a week lost in the last update a week ago.

Nov 24, Not as Exciting as you Might Think

 11/24/2025

 

One would think the NYSE would have a daily break down of hours for this Holiday week, but no.

Best I can tell  MTW open normal hours, Thursday closed for holiday, Friday close at 1 00 ET

I suspect today was most of the volume we will get this week with trading tapering off every day to near nothing Friday,   

 as mentioned Friday or this weekend, Wave Two continues sideways, notice the DOW was not nearly as strong as the NDX, DOW up 202

 SPX sideways as well but a stronger upsdie pattern than the DOW but OMO and RSI about done to the upside.

 NDX of course is the strongest to the upside. Bu again look at RSI and PMO.

Ten year yields still above 4%, we wait.

Gold and silver rallied but not a lot today, stocks pulling them higher. I believe both top this week and then begin a much larger decline.  

The Real Stock Market

 11/24/2025

I have emphasized the narrrowing of breadth over the past months, some ten stocks are 40% of he SPX capitalization. Here is an interesting stat from Bert Dohmen.

 

Over the past few weeks we’ve seen a number of stocks nosedive from their recent highs. As of last Thursday (November 20), the S&P 500 was down only 5.5% and the NASDAQ 100 was down 8.3% from their October 29 peaks.

Yet 42% of stocks in the S&P 500 and 54% of the NASDAQ 100 were in “official” bear markets (i.e. down 20% from their 52 week highs) last Thursday (November 20).

 

Jennifer Steals $81K, ok she is charges with ....

 11/23/2025

Realtor Charges with $81K Theft 

 

 

People Less Connected

 11/23/2025

from one of my students

 

 People today are the most disconnected from each other that they have ever been despite the world being the most connected it has ever been

Market Experiences Wave 2 Rebound

 11/22/2025

Thee three major indexes have similar patterns. 

Here is the 30 minute DOW chart. I am on my computer at at school and it is not storing the chart, will post chart later today. Here are comments.

RSI and PMO have strong peaks at the Nov 12 high, the wave two rebound is not near that strong which is as it should be. Wave 2 is sideways prior to a larger wave three down.  The sideways action means we can expect an alternate strong wave four up,once wave three ends. Given the 2,400 point drop ove wave one, three should be considerably stronger. 2400 x 1.618 = 3,882 is  a possibility. 

T bonds are still unclear, but yields remain above the  3.94% low in the ten year. 

Gold and silver may rebound with stocks this next week.

 

Hillsdale Accounting - First in Michigan in CPA Exam

 11/22/2025

 

Hillsdale Accounting Students Rank First in Michigan 

Hillsdale College accounting students ranked first in Michigan and eighth in the nation among first-time test takers on the Certified Public Accountant Exam, according to data from the National Association of State Boards of Accountancy. The first-time pass rate among Hillsdale students was 83%, compared to a national average of 54%, putting Hillsdale in eighth place out of 793 schools in the nation

Jen Shah Early Out of Jail, Reduced time from 78 MOnth Sentence

 11/21/2025

Jeh Shah was one of the Real Housewives of Salt Lake City. She participated in a telephone fraud scheme which netted her 78 months in prison.

Now she is out for Christmas after a mere 33 months. 

I doubt she will be back on TV.

 

Larry Summers at 70 Blows Life Reputation

 11/21/2025

 This is the Feb 15,1999 Time Cover, three who saved the world. It is a reference to Greenspan intervening in Long Term Capital Management which turned out to be OK anyway, But our point today, that is left to right, Rubin, Greeenspan, and then Treasury Secretary Larry Summers. 

Here is the Summers headline today.

 

Larry Summers' years of emails with Jeffrey Epstein roil Harvard

He is out of his teaching gig at Harvard and off the htAI Committee, click here for article.

Epstein wanted to surround himself with the powerful to isolate his activities from scrutiny, Far too many were too ready to accomodate this creep. This is quite a fall in 25  years. Bear markets have a habit of exposing the clay feet of former idols. 

NVDA and Jobs Report Fall Flat

 11/21/2025

 

NVDA and Jobs Report Fall Flat

 

Thursday the DJIA swung mor than 1,000 points intra-day. It gave back a 700 point gain, closing 387 points lower.

Wall Street Journal today

Monday the media was agog over the prospect of Nvidia earnings and the Thursday jobs report. NVDA reported a  62% increase in sales.  NVDA closed down over 3%, despite the big sale jump. As I write Friday morning, it has dropped another 1.22%.

The jobs report cited 119,000 new jobs.  The markets rallied for about thirty minutes and then reversed direction. Micron Tech lost 18% this week. Western Digital surrendered 8.9% and AMD gave back 7.8%.

Just weeks ago, investors were wild for tech stocks. Now the media tells us they are concerned whether the big investments, billions, in Artificial Intelligence, will pay off. The reality us that social mood towards the tech stocks has changed. The seven to ten tech stocks were accounting for 40% of the SPX value. The world does not turn on a dozen stocks.  

The DJIA has now closed below the November 7 close of 46,495. The high November 12 was 48,249. The decline from November 12 to mid-Friday today is 2,277 points.  The next juncture is the October 14 low of 45,719.

This action is an echo from October 1973. Then as now the markets made a new high on thin leadership. Markets sold off dramatically into mid-November as they have again.

We have noted for months that there has not been a Dow Theory confirmation of the new highs in the Industrials. The Transports peaked in November 2024. Transports have not returned to that high negating a buy Dow signal.

The yield on the ten-year Treasury was October 22 at 3.95%. Yields rose above the daily down trend line to 4.16%. They have now pulled back to 4.07% in a re-test of the breakout. There does not seem to be unity at the FED on whether to cut another quarter point. But long dated rates have increased in the last month. The FED only sets the overnight rate.

Crude oil bottomed October 20 at 57.02. It rallied and has now pulled back to $59.00. Yes, heating oil also rose from the October low. But it dropped 3.89% Thursday.  Natural gas has performed the best rising form $3 in the same period to $4.47. That said I really have no solid prediction about the direction of price in the near future.

When he was known as Cassisus Clay, he remarked ‘never mind what people say, just make sure they talk about ya.’  One might say that about the return of Landman streaming on ParamountPlus.  Tommy Norris is not a Landman but that is one of the least exaggerations of the series. But it is a smash hit, and everyone is talking about the Basin.

Dennis.elam@att.net

Ferrari Education, yes Seriously

 11/20/2025

Ferrari Education Center 

 

So Much for the Jobs Report

 11/20/2025

 The INDU SPX and NDX shown all look a like. The markets jumped on the whopping, yes that is sarcastic, 119,000 new jobs report. And then resumed the down trend.  Kenneth Hassett was on Fox defending the great Trump economy, but what about that WSJ article that Texas is slipping, job wise.

The bear market is underway. I don't care how much you love your stocks, eventually all will collapse, see 1973-74. 

Oil and interest rates unchanged but I still believe rates are going higher, not lower. 

FL Congresswoman Indicted for Federal Theft

 11/20/2025

Used Federal Covid Funds for Campaign 

 

Fraud at the Atlanta Hawks

 11/19/2025

 

An alert student reports on insider fraud at the Atlanta Hawks. 

Note the usual operation, fake invoices to cover  fraudluent expenses. 

Metals and Stocks Rebound

 11/19/2025

Yesterday we suggested it was too late to add shorts to stocks, and stocks are up this morning. 

We also suggested gold and silver were rebounding, rescuing my long gold and silver position.

That has also occurred.  The silver chart looks good this may be more than a rebound.

 

Third Wave Underway

 11/18/2025

 The last two lows, the wave one low Nov 7 amd Oct 23 are now upside resistance.  The reason for the strong declines the last two days is that wave three is underway.  PMO bottom and RSI top on this hourly chart are too oversold to buy now.  The bigger picture is that we are more certain the final high for the markets is in.

The uptrend line is broken.

SPX the same
 

NDX the same

 Silver PSLV

I recommended Sprott Silver which owns the  actual silver, not a bunch of miners.  It promptly retreated but looks like it has found a temporary bottom. 

 Bonds

TBF rises as bond prices fall and interest rates rise, it needs to break higher for a better assurance of an uptrend.

 My long anticipated stock market top is at hand. This should be a very profitable two year move on the short side. 

Again SH short SPX

PXQ short NASD

HDGE short DOW

DWSH short DOW and others

TBF short bonds 

 

Always interested in hearing from readers on the new blogspot format and what we are reporting, hope it is useful. 

Homes Losing Their Value

 11/18/2025

Home losses spread across the US 

The Dow looks to close today under the Nov 7 low of 46,495. . The SPX and NASD are already under their lows of that date. The market top we have discussed over the past months is forming. 

See Spencer Jakob's column on bear markets in Heard on the Street today in WSJ. He makes a comment that echoes my observation. He mentions a large contingent in the market today did not experience  2007-09. 

My observation is that suppose someone entered the brokerage / financial advisory business in 1982 as the bull market began when he was say 25 years old.  That was 43 years ago. today that person is 68 years old.  He or she never experienced the long period of stagnation from  1973 to  1982.  Instead the bear markets since 2000 have lasted  no more than two years. This year prices recovered to new highs in the shortest time ever, hello buy the dip crowd. 

 

As Richard Russell used to observe, there's a hard rain coming.  

Stocks Slip

 11/17/2025

DOW had a 600+ point sell off not quite enough to declare upside over, 

SPX and NDX are further down, NVDA and PLTR earnings later this week, at this point I don't think earnings, they both will have plenty matter as much as mood, still buying?

 Watching Treasury yields not enough  to declare a bottom in yields

 Silver should rally a bit and if so I exit the gold and silver positions looking for much lower entry in December

Nothing to report on oil 

ABCs of the CPA Exam

 11/17/2025

 

The “A to CPA” Exam Readiness Webinar with Peter Olinto from UWorld will take place today, Monday, November 17, from 12:00–1:00 p.m. CT.

Peter is UWorld’s lead CPA and CFA instructor and is a JD, CFA, and inactive CPA who passed all four parts of the CPA Exam and CFA Levels I & II on his first attempts.

Students may register up until the start of the webinar:
https://www.acctofi.com/education/find-cpes/event?eventId=50cf8369-0078-ccfc-2c3a-0b48da8c37a7

Lastly, please remember to submit any completed engagements that may not have already been reported by your chapter.

Please let me know if you have any questions. We hope you have a great week ahead!

Best,

Emerson on Gifts

 11/16/202025

I began my professorelam blog in 2006. I have posted Emerson's essay on Gifts every year prior to the annual madness known as Black Friday. BF is a shopping madness which misses the point as Emerson makes, of what gifting is all about.  As always, his thoughts from 18044 are so true today, I have included the short intro but click and read on. 

CLick here for Gifts 

 It is said that the world is in a state of bankruptcy, that the world owes the world more than
the world can pay, and ought to go into chancery, and be sold. I do not think this general
insolvency, which involves in some sort all the population, to be the reason of the difficulty
experienced at Christmas and New Year, and other times, in bestowing gifts; since it is
always so pleasant to be generous, though very vexatious to pay debts. But the impediment
lies in the choosing. If, at any time, it comes into my head, that a present is due from me to
somebody, I am puzzled what to give, until the opportunity is gone. Flowers and fruits are
always fit presents; flowers, because they are a proud assertion that a ray of beauty
from Essays: Second Series (1844)

Arnold made a movie about this madness titled Jingle All the Way, the search for turbo man and all the accessories. All the wrong way.

Jingle All the Way 

Morgan Chase Stuckwith Charlie Javice Legal Bills

 11/15/2025

Costs now include round the clock legal fees and celluite butter 

So, what did Morgan accomplish by getting Charlie a 7 year sentence, just more embarassing publicity.

Better idea would have been to pay her the $170 M over time, say two years and then the truth would have come out before the bank lost all $170 M. 

Interesting Certifications

 11/15/2025

Institute of Internal Auditors 

Click on Certifications

Internal Audit Practitioner is now a permanent certification

150 minute exam, 125 m/c questions

No experience requirement 

Previously it lasted three years as an incentive to pass the next two parts of the exam

This now becomes a more achievable certification. 

Institute of Management Accountants 

Click on Certifications

Financial and Managerial Accounting Asslciate 

This is one test of 80 multiple choice questions.

Apparently there is not experience requirement. 

Gleim offers review material for  both exams.

MIchael Burry is Short PLTR and NVDA

 11/14/2025

 https://www.businessinsider.com/big-short-michael-burry-palantir-stock-alex-karp-puts-ai-2025-11

Read here about Burry's Short

 

Tech Stocks Drop

 11/14/2025

 

Technology Shards Sell Off

 

NASD drops 2.3% Thursday Yes, Virginia, the hottest stocks can reverse direction.

Michael Burry was the subject of Michael Lewis book The Big Short.

Burry gained an instant reputation for betting the big banks were on the wrong side of the mortgage market in 2007. He was right. The story also became a movie which you can watch for free on Paramount Plus.

Last week I noted that Palantir was trading at 200x price to earnings ratio. Here is Burry’s latest move,.

In his post on X, Burry said he spent about $9.2 million buying up about 50,000 put options on Palantir, saying that the options would allow him to sell the stock at $50 apiece in 2027.

The put options convey the right to sell shares at a set price in the future and are typically bought to express a bearish or defensive view.

Palantir’s shares were trading at $178.29 on Thursday, giving the company a market value of $422.36 billion.

If correct Burry will earn $128.29 x 50,000 =, well, I am not sure my calculator will print that many digits.

Palantir’s CEO upon learning of this sputtered about earnings and outlook, denying, of course, this could happen.  PLTR dropped 6.5% Thursday.

For months this column has warned of overvaluations. We cited the dot.com and sub-prime drops as very similar. Stocks are trading lower on Globex this morning.

Howard Schulz is attempting to turn Starbucks around, yet again.

The union responded by striking at 65 stores, good luck Howard.

Crude oil continues stuck around $60.

The International Energy Agency does see increased oil demand.  But oil producers are expanding output much faster than demand. Blobal inventories reached their highest level since July 2021. That, simply put, is why oil remains stuck at $60.

Realize the bond market is far larger than the stock market. Trump  would pack the FED with low rate champions if  he could. But, as pointed out here, the FED only sets the overnight lending rate.

Two weeks ago mortgage rates were 6.17%. Today rates are6.24%.  A year ago rates were 6.78%. The trend is changing from down to up, no matter what the FED does.

Headlines suggest the FED is split on lower rates. Given the unhappiness of ‘affordability’, another cut may not be in the cards, that is what the mortgage market is saying.

Gold and silver pulled back yesterday and this morning. It may be that hard assets are topping now with the stock market.

 

Dennis.elam@att.net

A Down Day on Wall Street

 11/13/2025

 Monday's open created a gap up. The major indexes INDU SPX NDX all filled that gap today. Most were down 2% or more. Is this just a normal reaction or pullback from a new high, or the start of something bigger?  The next few days will tell but at least this is a start, and on no particluar negative news. 

Gold and silver pulled back but that seems reasonable given the big jump Wednesda, if not my jump to the long side, on a minor position, was wrong.

The two year Treasury yield did nothing, so no report there. Oil remains stalled around $60.  

Russell 2000 - Shaky

 11/11/2025

Check out the Heard on the Street column by Spencer Jajab in today's WSJ. He notes the Russell 2000 contains 40% companies which are unprofitable. The SPX by comparison has 22%. The P/E of the Russell is twice that of the SPX.  More 'investors' chasing meme stocks disguised as a real index, be cautious.

Silver Soars

 11/12/2025

Silver has taken off. PSLV appears to be in a third wave to the upside. I sold my silver short, whoops, and went long PSLV. PSLV is one of the Sprott.com family of funds. One is buying  Sprott's actual hold of real silver, not mining shares.

 Third waves are amazing and today's up move is a good example. Here is the detail on PSLV

Regret this is a bit hard to see but go to www.sprott.com for the real thing. As of the close yesterday nov 11 PSLV was priced at  $17 even. But the net asset value was $17.62, the actual value of the  10.48 B dollars of silver divided by the shares outstanding. So PSLV is trading at a 3.54% discount to its actual market value. One if literally buying silver below market. One will never get such a deal from those guys advertising on cable tv, buy coins at a big mark up. 

CEF has been around forever, created as a real money investment. It owns both silver and gold. It is now Sprott Physical Gold and Silver. It is also trading at a -3.39% discount to net asset value. 

CEF

Both PSLV and CEF are just displaying a PMO buy signal.
 

The 559 DOW Rally Not as Strong as the Media Thinks / Re Thinking Silver

 11/11/2025

With a few short positions I expected big losses today but it did NOT happen. Hedge was down 7 cents

 Silver 

Boy have I been wrong 

PSLV
 PMO looks ready to break out, in that case we need to buy sprott silver

 PSLV is literally silver bullion, no miners, PMO has sold off, regret we did not go long in June but the present is just that, this is the one to buy

A Bear Market Rally Across many Asset Classes

 11/10/2025

See my post on Nov 4 on how a bear market treats a former great stock, it declines, has great rallies, which encourage discouraged bears, and then declines again.

 Stocks and metals had strong rallies after last week long decline. And so with the govt re open, always a fundamental event to justify the technical, it did so. 

 I suspect most of the rebound was consumed today, bond are frustrating, there has been so much talk of FED cuts, the counter trend rally is having a hard time getting going. 

 

Silver had a great rally so much better to add shorts at a higher level.

Move tomorrow morning when the amateur hour is over. 

?Alyssia Finley on How Mandami Won - Grade Inflation

 11/10/2025

 

Palantir CEO Alex Karp attributed Zohran Mamdani’s election as New York mayor to a reverse class warfare: “I think the average Ivy League grad voting for this mayor is highly annoyed that their education is not that valuable, and the person down the street who knows how to drill for oil and gas, who’s moved to Texas, has a more valuable profession.”

He has a point. Colleges are graduating a surfeit of young people who lack hard or even soft skills. Even as employers complain about a dearth of qualified workers, a growing college-educated proletariat can’t find jobs they want to work. They believe their degrees aren’t being adequately rewarded by the free market and blame capitalism.

The real culprit is enormous government subsidization of higher education, which has distorted the labor supply. More than seven million bachelor’s degree recipients have entered the labor force since January 2020. Meanwhile, the number of workers without college degrees has declined by about 200,000 and those with associate degrees has shrunk by 1.1 million.

As baby boomers in blue-collar professions retire, labor shortages are growing in industries like construction, trucking and manufacturing. President Trump’s deportations compound the problem. Nearly 50% of small-business owners reported few or no qualified job applicants last month in a National Federation of Independent Business survey. “Finding qualified workers is proving to be impossible,” a Missouri manufacturer told the NFIB. The sentiment was echoed by a California auto shop: “We need to teach the trades in high school again. Trade jobs can pay well, but there is a real shortage of people willing/able to do the job.”

Too many young college grads are unemployed because they aren’t willing or able to do the jobs that are available. As of October 2024, 30.4% of 20- to 29-year-olds who had earned bachelor’s degrees that year weren’t working, compared with 21.9% for those who had earned associate degrees during the same period, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Fortunately for many college grads, they have parents with the means to support them financially while they search for the perfect job. Young adults with lesser pedigrees may not be as picky about jobs because they can’t afford to be. They will deliver packages for Amazon or man a supermarket cash register to pay their bills.

Recent college grads view such drudgery as beneath them and think employers are too demanding. “For Gen Z-ers, Work Is Now More Depressing Than Unemployment,” read a New York Times op-ed headline last week. “The entire process of getting and keeping an entry-level job has become a grueling and dehumanizing ordeal over the past decade,” the author writes. Young people grouse that employers are monitoring their productivity with “surveillance state technologies” and expect them to “do six jobs in a 40-hour workweek.”

Heaven forefend that they be asked to complete multiple assignments in a week—like kids in grade school once were expected to do before schools started banning homework. And how dare employers refuse to pay them for scrolling TikTok?

It’s understandable that grads might feel indignant about employer demands after having earned stellar GPAs for little effort and mediocre work. A recent Harvard report found that A’s account for about 60% of grades, compared with 25% two decades ago. Some 80% of grades awarded at Yale in 2023 were A’s or A-minuses.

It almost requires an effort to get a C. In a Substack essay, Johns Hopkins political scientist Yascha Mounk observes: “In one of the oldest jokes about the Soviet Union, a worker says, ‘We pretend to work, and they pretend to pay us.’ To an uncomfortable degree, American universities now work in a similar fashion: Students pretend to do their work, and academics pretend to grade them.” Parents and students who pay $80,000 a year expect high marks in return.

Eased academic standards and resulting grade inflation recall how credit raters, which were being paid by banks, slapped AAA ratings on subprime mortgage-backed securities in the lead-up to the 2008-09 financial crisis. Markets seized up as foreclosures rose and buyers of the mortgage bonds realized they couldn’t trust the ratings.

Similarly, employers are figuring out high GPAs aren’t a reliable indicator of merit. Even Ivy League schools are starting to worry that their top students are becoming a dime a dozen in the labor market.

Inflated grades have degraded the value of college degrees, just as excessive government spending and easy monetary policy fueled inflation and eroded paychecks. Students benefited from eased standards for a time—just as home buyers did from historically low interest rates early in the pandemic—but grads overall are now worse off.

Mr. Mamdani’s supporters are rightly angry that the value of their degrees and earnings have declined. Instead of blaming their woes on capitalism or Israel, they ought to be protesting big government and greedy colleges.

On the Other Hand

 11/9/2025

While I think the high was Oct 29, suppose I an wrong? Here is the QQQ which mimics the NDX or NASD 100.

 Blue dots are the  PAR SAR buy sell, now in sellmode, But the PMO clearly is bottoming. If the QQQ rises above the blue dots we have a daily buy signal. Be cautious.

XLK Tech ETF, gee not cheap!

 About a third of the cost and the same chart. Let's see what happens, watch for a take out of the PAR SAR blue dots.

Natural Disasters and the Markets

 11/9/2025

Market tops are often accompanied by natural disasters. The disaster adds tp economic slowdown. In the  1980s Japan was viewed as unstoppable in economic terms. Then the 1989 typhoon season hit.  

Japan went into two decades of slowdown, lengthened by the government's refusal to let  bankrupts do just that. '

A 6.9 earthquake hits Japan.  Apparently no injuries.

Phillipine earthquake kills 72. 

Jamie Dimon moves in to his new $6 B 60 story headquarters at  270 park Avenuie. 

Ford moves into its 2.1 million sf headquarters. 

San Antonio votes to spend about $800 M public money (actually the city did not let citizens vote on its $489 M contribution)  for a new Spurs basketball arena. That will make two 15,000 sf arenas when the n3ew one is finished in addition to the 65,000 seat Alamodome. 

State wide and national accounting firms are scooping up larger local San Antonio firms. They of course expect to make more money than any firm is currently making to have a return on the investment. We shall see. 

NDX Daily

 The uptrend appears broken in conjunction with the Oct 29 hig in several indexes. 

NDX 30 minute

After several days of decline from Oct 29 traders bought back the sell-off late Friday. Judging by the PMO I would expect more rally this week before the down turn resumes. 

Bonds

The Ten Year Treasury yield brok above its down trend line. We have discussed this for some time. Note the FED only sets the overnight lending rate, the market sets all other yields.

 

TBF is a bear bond fund so it mimics the yield above rather than the falling bond price.  Time to buy!

 It will be interesting to see how Trump's Tsyn Secy spins this one!  Again this is a sign of a coming recession if in fact we are not already in one given the layoffs in big firms. 

Silver

silver is in a wave two sideways correction. It should reach the previous high at  49.50 before topping. 

 I downloaded a national for pay newsletter this weekend. It was rather vague but did cite previous miraculous calls. Seems to me this letter is doing as well if not better for a far batter price.  More tomorrow.

Money Supply and the Stock Market

 11/8/2025

 No wonder the stock market is at an all time high. In the 1970s the media was fixated on Milton Friedman's money supply theories. One does not hear much about it anymore but here is the graph of M 2, Not the big rise during Covid and and even higher rise now!

 Before May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts); (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less individual retirement account (IRA) and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (3) balances in retail money market funds (MMFs) less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs.

Beginning May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less IRA and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (2) balances in retail MMFs less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs. Seasonally adjusted M2 is constructed by summing savings deposits (before May 2020), small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1.

Wall Street Moves To Texas

 11/8/2025

Firms Establish PResence in Dallas Metro 

Jamie Dimon spent years tearing down the original building at  270 Park Avenue because it is such a great location, well if you love NYC I guess.  It cost  $3B and is 60 stories high, click on link in story for more. What does he have to  pay someone to afford to live there?  I don't get it. But then I live in San Antonio.  

Great Gatsby Redux

 11/8/2025

Trump is threw a big Mar a Lago party last night. Newt Gingrich notes the timing is poor, with SNAP benefits ending now. But the analogy to Gatsby as the stock market tops is  a great socionomic moment. 

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Democratic lawmakers and pundits have certainly been more vocal in condemning the Halloween bash at Trump’s resort in Florida. Gingrich has long supported Trump, and rarely offered him anything but purely constructive criticism — at least in public.

He appeared to maintain that diplomatic stance by noting “somebody,” without naming Trump, “wasn’t thinking” when they organized a roaring ’20s-themed party with ill-timed allusions to F. Scott Fitzgerald’s 1925 novel “The Great Gatsby.”

The book quite famously explores the empty materialism and destructive carelessness of America’s wealthy, among other themes. Some believe Trump, whose bash was reportedly themed “A Little Party Never Killed Nobody,” was fully aware of its insensitive timing.

Paul Krugman, the 2008 winner of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, argued in his latest newsletter that most attendees “just don’t care about other people’s suffering,” and Friday’s event “was in large part a party held to celebrate others’ suffering.”

Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits for more than 42 million people were paused Saturday, and while the Trump administration said there’s no way to circumvent this amid the shutdown, it certainly managed to do just that during the shutdown in 2019.

Last Tango on Wall Street

 11/7/2025

Ray Dalio sees one last rally 

The markets soold off and then rallied back today ,I think  Ray is right, next week should see a rally and then a top.

Tom McClellan Blames the FED

11/7/2025

Tom McClellan blames the FED 

 We are now seeing the results of all this built-up braking force over the past 2 years.  Other agencies and causes may get blamed in the media for the economic slowdown, but it is the Fed's fault.

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 His parents created the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index

Oscillator aned Summation ndex 

His weekly bulletins usually highlight graphs of two different markets offset but a time period. The last had gold and oil offset by 1.5 years, he thought gold was predicting higher oil prices, maybe but not yet.

My point is that most analysts have no over riding system. They talk about the FED, various indicators like GDP or currency reserves. Over my time following markets here are a few 'benchmarks' which have come and gone. 

1970s Friedman's Money Supply was continually cited in business media

1980s How many US bonds would the Japanese buy in this auction, heard of that lately?

1990s What is Greenspan doing today?

Right now, the focus is all on the Mag 7 tech stocks, Palantir CEO claiming how could we have a recession as Burry shorts his stock and by golly the NASD is falling. 

My take is that the 39 year cycle of lower interest rates ended March 2020 dating back to 1981.  Long term rates should be going higher,  and they have been since March 2020. The FED only sets overnight rates. I do agree that we could  use the two year note rate and save all we spend on the FED. 

I believe the market is selling off not because of tariffs or uncertainty about AI. It is selling off becuse Ralph Elliott's wave pattern of three up two down has ended on multiple time frames. The top was Oct 29 just as Oct 1973 was a final top. 

 

Frothy Markets Bring Frothy Projects

 11/7/2025

 

Frothy Markets Produce Frothy Projects

 

Social Mood theory holds that bigger than ever projects are planned or occur amid market manias.  The Empire State Building was planned in 1928-29. It opened in 1931 amid the worst real estate market in decades. It was not profitable until the next bull market of the 1950s. So here we go again.

·      The 2026 Cadillac Blackwing (we are not yesterday’s Cadillac) features a  666 BHP supercharged engine capable of 205 mph. Just the thing to get one to the HEB in record time. Brembo brakes and carbon fiber touches abound.  This is an echo of the Auburn Cord Duesenberg autos of the 1920s.

·      San Antonio voters approve a $1.1 billion new arena for the Spurs basketball team. That will make two 15,000 seat venues in SA, the Spurs play a mere 40 days a year there.

·      Construction on the Jeddah Tower, the first one kilometer tall building ever, resumed in January 2025. Construction halted in 2018. Completion is slated for 2028.  This is ironic given no lack of open real estate in Saudi Arabia.

·      A mew version of Frankenstein premiers Friday. This is an echo of  1973’s The Exorcist, billed as the most horrifying movie ever. It was a box office smash.

Evidence mounts that the stock markets peaked October 29. That too is an echo of October 29, 1973. Then the markets made revisited the old high on narrow breadth. Panatir trades at 200x time earnings. The Big Short investor Michael Burry has a $1.1 B short bet on Nvidia and Palantir, the current AI stars of the tech driven market.  It will be interesting to see how that works out.

In recent days the NASD made a new high while twice and many of tis stocks were down rather than up.  I believe we are seeing a repeat of the 1973-74 50% drop in the markets. No one believed it then either. But political polarization, overseas war, inflation then as now, then as now all look eerily familiar.

OPEC is dropping crude oil prices in Asia while increasing output.  Oil briefly traded above $65 September 25. This morning it is just below $60. Low oil prices are a symptom of a declining economy with less demand for energy.  The fact that gasoline prices are lower is not a positive. 

Meanwhile Rick Perry launches Fermi. Fermi is engaged in natural gas projects and eventually plans nuclear reactors in the Texas Panhandle.  Fermi has no earnings to date. Another winner or a bust at the top.

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