Tuesday, December 30, 2025

The U S Dollar - A Causality Question

 12/30/2025

Jennifer Sor blames the usual punching bags, the FED and Trump 

The link was from yahoo but does not seem to open, The author notes a 10$ 2025 in the dolar blaming as usual the FED  and Trump tariffs. Let's look at the actual graphs of the dollar and gold. 

The dollar has declined 10% this year but the actual graph suggests a different reason for the decline.

Prior to the 2024 election the buck was trading at 101.  In  November this year it  was right where it was a year ago-100 more or less.  The media always tosses causality around as though it can magically determine the reason things happen. I suggest that the buck rose hoping Trump, having won, would repair the damage of the Biden years, ie too much spending. Hope quickly faded putting us right back where we were, and that is my take on what happened. Trump says he likes the weak dollar as al our goods are cheaper in terms of foreign currencies and easier to sell, tourism will improve. Well if that were true Argentina would be a powerhouse, its currency has been the weakest of this Hemisphere for some time.  Mexico suffers from this malady as well which is why Mexican billionaries do not leave their money in Mexico. 

Here is another perspective, let's overlay gold to the dollar.


 

 I hear all sorts of nonsensical explanations for the rise of gold like it is needed for NVDA's chips. 

A better reason is that people are exchanging paper dollars for gold, look at the chart. 

Here is the five year longer view


 In 2021 the dollar and gold were equal. The dollar raced ahead, ten corrected but gold slowly began gaining ground.  In early 2025 gold won and the dollar retreated. Gold is ahead of itself and will likely correct after the big parabolic run. Yesterday Ed Yardeni predicted 10,00 gold by 2029 yet seemed oblivious to what that might mean for our currency. 

The 10% dollar drop means the stock market gain of 18% was not as strong as it appears, it was just stocks readjusting for the loss of purchasing power.  

Monday, December 29, 2025

Metals Appear to Top

 12/29/2025

I watched Charles Payne's show on Fox Business today.  One after another, each analyst was certain everything is going up. Ed Yardeni called the SPX to 7700 in 2026, not to be outdone he called gold to 10,000 by 2029. He does not seem to grasp that if gold doubles from here, sure could, it spells serious trouble for paper money. 

Silver


 Sprott silver trust owns silver, not mining stocks like most mutual funds and ETFs. It dropped 6.8% and gold dropped $200. Yardeni simply said gold would trend sideways. After a near vertical rise it will fal in a similar vertical fall.  I am buying ZSL a bear sliver fund. 

This is just what we want, an inverse of the above silver chart. It is at the dead low and now rallying. RSI and PMO are also dead low and this is cheap. I bought today and will add this week. 

DOW


 

The Dec 12 high is intact, so far. We have labeled a wave one down and two up. The DOW dropped today perhaps just end of year tax selling but the pattern is here, we will watch and report.

Bond prices have been stubborn to fall, patience. 

More tomorrow. 

China's Mag Train a fascinating video

 12/29/2025

Here is a video of the train China has and we don't 

 

At 17 minutes this is fascinating, nothing like a govt with crushing eminent domain to get its way for a land grab to make this happen.  

Unease in the Bond Market

 12/29/2025

The bond market can terrify politicians. 

After the rise in rates and drop in stocks ala Liberation Day, as the article says the administration has been much more careful in its remarks resulting in the term TACO Trump Always Chickens Out. 

I have noted the 10 year rates are above the downtrend line on its chart but have yet to accelerate. We shall see.  

Friday, December 26, 2025

Meet Kurt Hoh l, SEC Top Accountant

 12/26/2025

Question to Students, Did Kurt realy say anything?

 

 

WASHINGTON—The Securities and Exchange Commission is evaluating whether to change rules around conflicts of interest for auditors and their clients, how its audit watchdog handles inspections of accounting firms and the cost for companies of complying with requirements.

Accounting standard setters need to more closely scrutinize the costs of disclosures for companies applying new rules, SEC Chief Accountant Kurt Hohl said Monday at a conference in Washington, D.C. “What we don’t want to happen is essentially a high compliance cost to dissuade companies from accessing the public market,” Hohl said. 

Kurt Hohl, chief accountant at the SEC
Kurt Hohl, chief accountant at the SEC Securities and Exchange Commission

Hohl, who has served as chief accountant since July, advises the commission on accounting and auditing issues and oversees interpretation of accounting rules. Hohl spent 26 years as a partner at Ernst & Young, rising to global deputy vice-chair of the Big Four firm’s global assurance professional practice and retiring in 2023. He also previously worked at the SEC from 1989 to 1997.

The chief accountant is involved in the SEC’s search for candidates for all five positions on the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board. The PCAOB was spared from elimination in July when the Senate passed a tax bill that omitted the measure. The Senate parliamentarian determined that including the provision in the bill violated budget reconciliation rules.

Hohl discussed some of the key issues he’s watching in an interview with the WSJ Leadership Institute’s CFO Journal. His answers have been edited for length and clarity.

What do you want to see change with the SEC’s auditor independence rules? The regulator last eased these rules in 2020.

The independence rules are fairly clear. You can’t have direct business relationships with audit clients. Where it gets complex is where you basically are partnering with a nonaudit client and that nonaudit client uses an audit client as part of their service delivery. That’s what adds complications to the situation. Looking and seeing how pervasive that is, looking and making sure and talking with firms to understand how that affects how they monitor and enforce their independence requirements is something that’s top of mind.

Is that a greater issue amid companies’ AI partnerships and private-equity money pouring into accounting firms?

There are complications that AI adds to the business development relationship required under the auditor independence rules. Also private equity is buying some of these smaller accounting firms and making the decision that we don’t want to serve in the public company market anymore because it’s too expensive for us to operate in that space. Auditor choice is a priority. We want to make sure that companies accessing the public markets—we’re trying to encourage companies to come to the marketplace—have a choice of audit firms in which to pick from.

There’s nothing in the works to loosen the independence rule. But we want to take a look at how the changing business environment affects our independence rules to make sure that they continue to be fit for purpose in the environment. We’ll work closely with the commission in terms of our observations and how they apply to the current rules, and we’ll decide what to do at that time.

What would a potential change to auditor independence rules look like?

I talk to the private-equity firms all the time. Some of the things that I did in retirement was actually consult for PE firms. The focus was, hey, look, if you’re going to do this, there’s a cost to basically build a high-quality audit practice that serves the public markets. You have a lot more rules that you have to comply with and the expectation is the work that’s going to be done is going to be the highest quality standard. 

 

That’s one of the things that I talk to PE firms about. If you’re going to do this, you’ve got to go all in in order to make the investments that are necessary to serve that marketplace and encourage them to stay in because we want competitive options available. 

On the AI side, it’s kind of too early to make any call on what we’re going to do there. We’re still studying the issue to figure out what if any changes need to be made to deal with some of these indirect business relationships or business relationship rules as they apply to use of AI. 

You’ve said you want the PCAOB to add more context to their inspection reports on audit firms. What would that look like? 

I mean, wouldn’t you like to know what the particular market share is and what types of clients that your auditors were serving? If I basically said here’s an auditor who’s not doing so well in quality and they basically do like these types of audits, that’s some level of context. I have no predisposed notion on what goes into the inspection report. If the PCAOB shifts to a quality control or quality management process, that adds complications because the statute limits what they can say immediately. But I think that’s probably a better way to go because the true accountability for a firm’s quality rests with their organization structure, with their system of quality management and ultimately with the firm’s leader, not the particular engagement team who’s getting inspected.

Should the PCAOB be folded into the SEC and do you expect lawmakers to revive that push? 

Audit regulation is incredibly important. We need basically high-quality auditing standards so that we have a robust capital market in the United States. Whether it’s part of the SEC or part of the SEC’s oversight of the PCAOB, it’s critically important to our ecosystem. I don’t follow Capitol Hill very closely, but based on the fact that we were closed for 43 days and we couldn’t even get a simple vote on a continuing resolution, I doubt if we’re going to basically see PCAOB elimination and folding into the SEC anytime soon.

Write to Mark Maurer at mark.maurer@wsj.com

Copyright ©2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

Appeared in the December 11, 2025, print edition as 'SEC’s Top Accountant Weighs Altering Auditor Rules'.


Meet Charlie Javice

 12/26/2025


 

 Ever since JPMorgan Chase JPM -0.59%decrease; red down pointing triangle

disclosed that Charlie Javice’s legal team had sent the bank $74 million in legal bills for her criminal trial, the question has been how they racked up such eye-popping expenses. The answer apparently includes $530 in gummy bears.

Lawyers for JPMorgan Chase released a detailed list of Javice’s supposed legal expenses on Monday, which included everything from dozens of hotel upgrades to a tower of seafood at a restaurant. 

Javice was convicted of defrauding the bank when she sold her educational startup, Frank, for $175 million to JPMorgan in 2021. But in a twist, the bank has been picking up the legal bills for Javice and Olivier Amar, another executive, because of a clause in that deal that said JPMorgan would shoulder all associated costs in the event of a dispute.

For months, the bank has been trying to get out of the arrangement before Javice’s appeal results in even more charges, which the bank has called “patently excessive and egregious.”

Some of Javice’s legal expenses, like cellulite butter, were already made public during a court hearing last month, but Monday’s filing details a wide-ranging list of charges the bank takes issue with. Many of the expenses were billed by her lawyers, not Javice herself, the new disclosures show. 

A spokesman for Javice previously said that she “didn’t charge or see any expenses” and has followed the written policies during her time as a JPMorgan employee, after the bank acquired her startup, and under the legal rules.

After Javice was charged with fraud in 2023, she brought on a number of well-known celebrity attorneys like Alex Spiro, who has represented Elon Musk and New York City Mayor Eric Adams, as well as José Baez and Ronald Sullivan, who defended Casey Anthony and Harvey Weinstein.

Spiro’s firm, Quinn Emanuel Urquhart & Sullivan, billed almost $44 million of the total, JPMorgan said.

A representative of the firm said the bank was “trying to walk away” from its obligations to pay Javice’s bills and “attempting to manufacture distractions by highlighting a handful of attorney expenses (not incurred by Ms. Javice) over two years, the vast majority of which it already reviewed and paid or are not disputed.”

Here are some of the items Javice and her lawyers have billed the bank, the court filing said:

Food

  • $530 on gummy bears
  • $581 dinner for two that included a $161 seafood tower
  • $710 bill at Eataly 
  • $347 for three charcuterie boards for an afternoon snack
  • $214 for “Italian inspired ice cream”
  • $60 for an Uber eats delivery of four cookies and a cookie box
  • “Copious amounts of alcohol” including old-fashioneds, vodka martinis, Ethiopian thyme Margarita, Lychee martini

Travel and hotels

  • Over $3,000 for three first-class flights between Boston and New York
  • $25,800 of hotel-room upgrades
  • $284 car ride for half a mile

Entertainment

  • Food at the Ellis Island National Museum of Immigration
  • Transportation to American Museum of Natural History
  • $13.57 for a Spotify charge by one attorney

Miscellaneous

  • A pet hair roller
  • Stain remover
  • A Cookie Monster toddler toy
  • Lavender and jasmine scented sachets
  • Cellulite butter
  • A plastic cup
  • $75 on a suitcase

Legal expenses

  • 147 different legal professionals, some of whom billed as high as $2,700 an hour
  • An average of 24 professionals a day at trial
  • Some billed for trial “attendance” on days when there was no trial, including a Saturday

Ever since JPMorgan Chase JPM -0.59%decrease; red down pointing triangle

disclosed that Charlie Javice’s legal team had sent the bank $74 million in legal bills for her criminal trial, the question has been how they racked up such eye-popping expenses. The answer apparently includes $530 in gummy bears.

Lawyers for JPMorgan Chase released a detailed list of Javice’s supposed legal expenses on Monday, which included everything from dozens of hotel upgrades to a tower of seafood at a restaurant. 

Javice was convicted of defrauding the bank when she sold her educational startup, Frank, for $175 million to JPMorgan in 2021. But in a twist, the bank has been picking up the legal bills for Javice and Olivier Amar, another executive, because of a clause in that deal that said JPMorgan would shoulder all associated costs in the event of a dispute.

For months, the bank has been trying to get out of the arrangement before Javice’s appeal results in even more charges, which the bank has called “patently excessive and egregious.”

Some of Javice’s legal expenses, like cellulite butter, were already made public during a court hearing last month, but Monday’s filing details a wide-ranging list of charges the bank takes issue with. Many of the expenses were billed by her lawyers, not Javice herself, the new disclosures show. 

A spokesman for Javice previously said that she “didn’t charge or see any expenses” and has followed the written policies during her time as a JPMorgan employee, after the bank acquired her startup, and under the legal rules.

After Javice was charged with fraud in 2023, she brought on a number of well-known celebrity attorneys like Alex Spiro, who has represented Elon Musk and New York City Mayor Eric Adams, as well as José Baez and Ronald Sullivan, who defended Casey Anthony and Harvey Weinstein.

Spiro’s firm, Quinn Emanuel Urquhart & Sullivan, billed almost $44 million of the total, JPMorgan said.

A representative of the firm said the bank was “trying to walk away” from its obligations to pay Javice’s bills and “attempting to manufacture distractions by highlighting a handful of attorney expenses (not incurred by Ms. Javice) over two years, the vast majority of which it already reviewed and paid or are not disputed.”

Here are some of the items Javice and her lawyers have billed the bank, the court filing said:

Food

  • $530 on gummy bears
  • $581 dinner for two that included a $161 seafood tower
  • $710 bill at Eataly 
  • $347 for three charcuterie boards for an afternoon snack
  • $214 for “Italian inspired ice cream”
  • $60 for an Uber eats delivery of four cookies and a cookie box
  • “Copious amounts of alcohol” including old-fashioneds, vodka martinis, Ethiopian thyme Margarita, Lychee martini

Travel and hotels

  • Over $3,000 for three first-class flights between Boston and New York
  • $25,800 of hotel-room upgrades
  • $284 car ride for half a mile

Entertainment

  • Food at the Ellis Island National Museum of Immigration
  • Transportation to American Museum of Natural History
  • $13.57 for a Spotify charge by one attorney

Miscellaneous

  • A pet hair roller
  • Stain remover
  • A Cookie Monster toddler toy
  • Lavender and jasmine scented sachets
  • Cellulite butter
  • A plastic cup
  • $75 on a suitcase

Legal expenses

  • 147 different legal professionals, some of whom billed as high as $2,700 an hour
  • An average of 24 professionals a day at trial
  • Some billed for trial “attendance” on days when there was no trial, including a Saturday

Ever since JPMorgan Chase JPM -0.59%decrease; red down pointing triangle

disclosed that Charlie Javice’s legal team had sent the bank $74 million in legal bills for her criminal trial, the question has been how they racked up such eye-popping expenses. The answer apparently includes $530 in gummy bears.

Lawyers for JPMorgan Chase released a detailed list of Javice’s supposed legal expenses on Monday, which included everything from dozens of hotel upgrades to a tower of seafood at a restaurant. 

Javice was convicted of defrauding the bank when she sold her educational startup, Frank, for $175 million to JPMorgan in 2021. But in a twist, the bank has been picking up the legal bills for Javice and Olivier Amar, another executive, because of a clause in that deal that said JPMorgan would shoulder all associated costs in the event of a dispute.

For months, the bank has been trying to get out of the arrangement before Javice’s appeal results in even more charges, which the bank has called “patently excessive and egregious.”

Some of Javice’s legal expenses, like cellulite butter, were already made public during a court hearing last month, but Monday’s filing details a wide-ranging list of charges the bank takes issue with. Many of the expenses were billed by her lawyers, not Javice herself, the new disclosures show. 

A spokesman for Javice previously said that she “didn’t charge or see any expenses” and has followed the written policies during her time as a JPMorgan employee, after the bank acquired her startup, and under the legal rules.

After Javice was charged with fraud in 2023, she brought on a number of well-known celebrity attorneys like Alex Spiro, who has represented Elon Musk and New York City Mayor Eric Adams, as well as José Baez and Ronald Sullivan, who defended Casey Anthony and Harvey Weinstein.

Spiro’s firm, Quinn Emanuel Urquhart & Sullivan, billed almost $44 million of the total, JPMorgan said.

A representative of the firm said the bank was “trying to walk away” from its obligations to pay Javice’s bills and “attempting to manufacture distractions by highlighting a handful of attorney expenses (not incurred by Ms. Javice) over two years, the vast majority of which it already reviewed and paid or are not disputed.”

Here are some of the items Javice and her lawyers have billed the bank, the court filing said:

Food

  • $530 on gummy bears
  • $581 dinner for two that included a $161 seafood tower
  • $710 bill at Eataly 
  • $347 for three charcuterie boards for an afternoon snack
  • $214 for “Italian inspired ice cream”
  • $60 for an Uber eats delivery of four cookies and a cookie box
  • “Copious amounts of alcohol” including old-fashioneds, vodka martinis, Ethiopian thyme Margarita, Lychee martini

Travel and hotels

  • Over $3,000 for three first-class flights between Boston and New York
  • $25,800 of hotel-room upgrades
  • $284 car ride for half a mile

Entertainment

  • Food at the Ellis Island National Museum of Immigration
  • Transportation to American Museum of Natural History
  • $13.57 for a Spotify charge by one attorney

Miscellaneous

  • A pet hair roller
  • Stain remover
  • A Cookie Monster toddler toy
  • Lavender and jasmine scented sachets
  • Cellulite butter
  • A plastic cup
  • $75 on a suitcase

Legal expenses

  • 147 different legal professionals, some of whom billed as high as $2,700 an hour
  • An average of 24 professionals a day at trial
  • Some billed for trial “attendance” on days when there was no trial, including a Saturday




Geysers in the Permain Basin

 12/26/2025

Geysers Arriving in the Basin

 

The Permian Basin, which includes West Texas and Eastern New Mexico, provides some 50% of US crude production. For every barrel of oil the Basin also produces five or six barrels of water.  The Basin is named after the Permian geologic period at the end of the Paleozoic era. It consists of several basins resulting from an ocean 250-290 million years ago. Hence, it produces a lot of salt water. Then the earth’s oceans rose and fell creating a vast but shallow Permian Sea. Today the sea is gone but we do have the beach sand.

Hydraulic fracking increases underground pressures. When those pressures exceed .5 pounds per square inch per foot, the water seeks a pathway upward. This is a threat to sources of drinking water.

These pressures now run as high as .7 pounds. In January 2022 the water found a pathway out of the ground.  The result was a geyser of water 100 feet high in Crane County. The original well had been plugged. But the pressure was great enough to escape the well bore.

 This is causing great concern among ranchers and those seeking a clean glass of water. Crude oil is a large component of the Texas economy. Don’t expect any scaling back of exploration. But a major incident not in isolated Crane County could change the calculus of the oil patch.

Oil prices have pulled back today. February 2026 crude is down 94 cents at $57.41. There is no lack of supply. Price did bounce off $55 which is a positive. Yet tanker seizures in the Caribbean have yet to push the price back above $60.

On my professorelam.blogspot.com blog I commented that when a market is in vertical condition, further analysis is not possible. The gold and silver markets are a case in point. February gold has rocketed another $80 today to $4,582.  Silver has reached $76.25 with a $4.50 daily gain. All measures of momentum for these markets are maxed out. A case in point is platinum which is up 10% or $241 today reaching $2,487. Palladium jumped $186. Red hot metals markets are rarely good news for the rest of the economy. Investors are clearly piling into the metals as an alternative to paper money. Governments take note.

The SPX is up a mere $4 and the Dow Industrials down 55. Metals and stocks are extended by any momentum measure. Investors should be writing call options against long positions for downside protection. As always during the Holiday season, volume has been light.

The bottom line is that metals and stocks have advanced in tandem. Both are over-extended. Remember that markets in parabolic formation near always retreat in the same fashion.

Dennis.elam@at.net

 

 

 

Thursday, December 25, 2025

When You're Smiling The Whole World Smiles With You

 12/25/2025

When You Are Smiling 

 


The Top 1% spnet 50% Of the Money

 12/25/2025

Golden Age for the Better Half 

Metals


 Platinum sold off a bit Wednesday but Palladium sold off more.


 Palladium had a true outside reversal day. This is when price makes a new high but closes under the previous day range. This should be a clue that gold and silver will soon top as well. 

Wednesday, December 24, 2025

A PAR SAR Daily Buy Signal

 12/24/2025

We commented Monday that the market was less than 200 points from a daily Parabolic Stop and Reverse PAR SAR buy signal. The market rose an incredible 289 points today, I say incredible, ok you say that is not big deal at this level, because during Christmas week the market usually does nothing much, Yes it does show an upward bias from Christmas to mid January but  this is a buy signal. 

It continues the buy signal from the April low on the more important weekly chart,  but note that RSI at top and PMO lower panel are quite extended. 


Car loans now stretch to 100 months. See today's WSJ. If the markets do turn down, that will be the perfect set up for a wash out in car loans.  Imagine hundreds of thousands of car loans going delinquent.  That would be like the real estate wash out of  27-08. 

UPW gets closer to a buy signal

Merry Christmas!
 


William DeVane in Monte Walsh explains the Ethics of Cowboy Life

 12/24/2025


 William DeVane Explains why the Cowboys Won't Pay

I will provide many different views of ethics from Ralph W Emerson to the Western Movie Monte Walsh. 

When a cowboy gives his word, he means it.  How many people can you say that about? 

the Old West meets the New West 


 

Going Concerns Versus Clean Opinions

 12/24/2025

take a look you will be amazed GCs far ounumber clean opinions 

 

Monday, December 22, 2025

Stocks Breaking Out?

 12/22/2025

The parabolic stop and reverse level is 48,554, above that we have a buy signal. The close today was 48,362  a mere 192 points away. The gain today was more than that.  I expect a break and a daily SAR buy signal. 


 Years ago about a strong market I read an analyst comment, market in vertical condition, further analysis not possible. Yet silver has reached an extreme, 70 certainly possible, gold rose 82 bucks today.


 This is the Sprott Silver Trust which owns, yes, real silver. At top RSI has repeated over 70 hits. At bottom PMO is as extended as it can be.  ZSL ultra short silver is a mere $6.23. Markets which go parabolic, correct in a parabolic fashion. That will happen here, just a matter of watching. 


So if the markets give us a buy signal what to buy?  A reader of this site commented that stocks are too high to buy, I agree but look at what silver did. Here is a very modest suggestion. This Utility ETF will retrace 50% of the recent advance from the April low  at 21, it is about there now. 


 Okay this is not the next NVDA, but it is relatively safe these are utility stocks. 

Crude oil is nicely bouncing off 55 suppiort. RIG which I recommended at six, fell to 2.30 and is now 4.01. If crude rallies with stocks this could yet work out well.  It is trading for 54% of book value. 

 Trading should slow with Christmas on Thursday. Federal holidays hould all be three day weekends.

dennis.elam@att.net 

 

 

Friday, December 19, 2025

Industrial Class Fraud in Minnesota

 12/19/2025

Fraud Tourism in MN 

A Santa Claus Rally

 12/19/2025

 

Santa Claus Rally Comin’ To Town

 

Friday, Dec. 19, 2025 11:00 AM CST

The stock market often rallies into the end of the year. Given the seasonal significance, it is referred to as the Santa Claus Rally.

It appears that rally is finally underway.

DOW Industrials peaked December 12 at 48,820. The market then declined to 47,900 or so, a 920point drop. But Thursday Dec 18, the market rallied and then gave back 414 points of the gain. This morning it has regained 273 points of the Thursday advance.

The Transports made a new high last Friday closing at 17,620. It appears that both indexes could make new highs by year end. That would be a positive Dow Theory buy signal. That means my prior suspicions of a stock market top are in serious doubt. Various measures of investor confidence are as high as ever, and that is not bullish. But the market goes where it wants.

Trump continually demands lower interest rates. He ignores that the FED can only set the overnight inter-bank lending rate, not the longer rates. The FED did his bidding lowering that rate to 3.75% . the FED had to as the 3-month Treasury Bill was trading right there. Now the FED also announces monthly purchases of  $40 B of Treasury Bills. This injects money into the markets. That was known as Quantitative Easing a few years back. Every time the FED bought Treasuries, QE, the stock market rose higher.  The ten-year yield is 4.15% and has not fallen as much as I thought it might.  Mortgage bonds average 12 years until they are rolled over due to home sales. The ten-year rate tends to set the direction of mortgage rates, hence its importance. Let’s keep a watch on the ten-year note.

Wednesday morning, crude oil prices made a stand right at the $55 level.  This column has noted the importance of that support level. The media latched on to the Trump Venezuela embargo of oil tankers. Our US Navy seized one.  Other empty ships are anchored outside the harbors, wary that they might be seized as well if carrying Venezuelan oil. This further pressures Cuba which is near totally dependent on such oil shipments.

This column does not usually cover political markets. It appears Trump is testing even his die-hard MAGA supporters. He made derisive comments on the tragic death of Rob Reiner and his wife. He is hawking a Trump watch on television. He fired the Board of the Kennedy Center, made himself Chairman, and appointed his faithful including Chief of Staff and Attorney General to the Board. The new Board promptly attempted to rename the 1964 Center, the Trump-Kennedy Center. The Board can no more do that than change the name of the Lincoln Memorial. And then there is the Department of War, not Defense. None of this will play well in the mid-terms.

Dennis.elam@att.net

Thursday, December 18, 2025

Santa Claus Rally, Maybe Not

 12/18/2025

The INDU high today was 48365, the close 47951 a drop of 414 points. That is the real headline but I doubt we will see it tomorrow. This is a tne day each bar is one hour of trading.  The marrket may be trying to find a bottom, or not. 

NDX did have a day to day cange of +371.  SPX high to close down42 points. Granted se had a blast off to start the day sessoin so it corrected back, but 

I bought a utility index fund, very conservative, it may make a bit if we do have a Santa rally.

I suggested bonds would rally and they have. 


 

Nothing like the heady days of 198.4-86 but a whopping 50 bass point rise. 

When it is over we will get a better buy in TBF. 

EY's AuditClean Up

 from WSJ 10/1/2025

posted 21/18/2025

 


  • The firm had a net loss of 101 public-company audit clients between Jan. 1, 2023, and June 30, 2025, in part a bid to improve audit quality.

An artificial-intelligence tool created this summary, which was based on the text of the article and checked by an editor. Read more about how we use artificial intelligence in our journalism.


  • Ernst & Young anticipates its U.S. auditing deficiency rate will be at or below 9% this year, the lowest in 16 years.
    View more

Ernst & Young expects to achieve its lowest U.S. auditing shortfall rate in 16 years after working to improve its practices by shedding dozens of audit clients, setting up centralized support teams and relying more on tech tools.

Auditing deficiencies are expected to be at or below 9% this year for EY as the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board wraps up its inspections process for the Big Four accounting firms, people familiar with the matter said. 

EY has chipped away at the rate from 46% in 2022, then 37% and 28% in 2023 and 2024, respectively. The firm had the highest deficiency rate among the Big Four—which also includes Deloitte, PricewaterhouseCoopers and KPMG—in the U.S. in those three years. EY’s 2025 standing among peers is unknown as the other three firms haven’t disclosed their deficiency rates yet.

The PCAOB is expected to issue its inspection findings in the coming months. PwC said it is seeing “meaningful improvement” over its 2024 results, which saw a 16% deficiency rate.

EY on Wednesday is set to release a report stating that it anticipates its deficiency rate will fall below 10%. 

EY said its continuing investments in technology and retaining and training its workforce have been key to shrinking the deficiencies in its audits. The firm last year said it planned to invest $1 billion through 2027 in part to strengthen AI-enabled audit and tax platforms and boost U.S. early-career compensation.

“We expect technology to continue to support our teams in terms of the quality of the work they do, but also how they do the work and the insights they’re able to glean from the work,” said Dante D’Egidio, EY’s Americas vice chair for assurance. 

Audit revamp

The PCAOB’s findings led EY to improve the quality of its U.S. audit work, which centered on standardizing its approach and building centralized teams to provide audit support. The firm in 2023 said it was also enhancing portions of its audit methodology and tools and refreshing its approach to improve training. 

The revamp has included cutting ties with many U.S. public companies as audit clients, as The Wall Street Journal reported last year. EY had a net loss of 101 public-company audit clients between Jan. 1, 2023, and June 30, 2025, including 132 departures, according to data from research firm Ideagen. Deloitte, KPMG and PwC had net gains of 61, 43 and nine, respectively, in that period.

“We made an intentional decision to reduce the number of audit clients in our portfolio in order to accelerate improvements to the audit and drive sustainable audit quality,” D’Egidio said. 

The frequency of EY public-company audit client losses is unlikely to persist, D’Egidio said.

2009'10'15'20051015202530354045505560%EYDeloittePwC
KPMG

Public companies generally switch auditors either to pay lower fees or because they have gone private, been acquired or outgrown the capabilities of the original firm. Audit firms also can drop clients, particularly if they have become overly risky or serving them presents a conflict of interest.

Deloitte led market share in U.S. public-company auditing in 2024, succeeding EY, which had been No. 1 for at least a decade, according to Ideagen data based on the number of audit reports. 

“Client numbers alone don’t capture growth,” D’Egidio said.


  • Ernst & Young anticipates its U.S. auditing deficiency rate will be at or below 9% this year, the lowest in 16 years.

  • The firm reduced its deficiency rate from 46% in 2022 to an expected 9% in 2025 through practice improvements.

  • Wednesday, December 17, 2025

    Tech Wreck

     12/17/2025


     Originally this was my page for computer makers, I added some AI like Oracle, Core Weave, Broadcom

    but point is they are all down hard, and this is December, not a month known for            big declines.

    Tech has lead on the way up, it is leading on the way down. NASD is down much more than others today.


     

    The tech heavy NDX has lead the market to all time highs, it has now topped and headed lower, much lower. It is early in the bear market. I will add to PSQ tomorrow.


     PSQ made a low Dec 8 higher than the low Nov 1, It is now headed higher. I suspect the tech rally is done. Wave one up, Wave twp down, now three up.

    Bonds

     

    My long term view is that bond yields will move much higher and prices lower, more tomottow

     

    Enjoying this let me hear from your

     

    dennis.elam@att.net 

    Spaghetti Western Trilogy, Danish Symphony

     2/13/2026 Fist full of Dollars https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4niv522mbtM&list=RD4niv522mbtM&start_radio=1 For a Few Dollars More ...