OIl Breaks Out

 2/27/2026

Oil Breaks Out

 

If economi conditions worsen, drilling and completion activies will cease in 2026

Dallas Federal Reserve

Crude oil has broken out to a new six month high at  $66.96. June 23,2025 saw the last high at $68.21. Crude is only  $1.30 form setting a new annual high.

The fracking boom of the early 2000s made the US the largest oil and gas producer in the world. Trump’s ‘drill baby drill’ comment in his State of the Union message has a hollow ring to most energy producers. At recent prices, Primary Vision data indicates one-fifth of the fracking equipment in the Permian Basin has moved overseas.  Prices under $60 simply do n ot support continued exploration.

The jump in price cited above is great  but will it hold?  It must do so for a a period of time to induce more drilling activity.

In the last month, natural gas prices have fallen from $4.00 to $2.85. the mild winter, aside from the recent Northeast stornsm and lots of supply have tempered price.

Gasoline futures have rallied from less than $2.00 to $2.28. This is still low enough to keep pump prices around $3.00.

The Dow Industrials as well as SPX and NDX have been range bound this year.  The DOW has traded between 48,50 and 50,500. As I write Friday morning the DOW is down about 500 points. This takes it to the bottom of the year’s range. But momentum indicators have fallen to a level indicating the possibility of a rally. Mortgage rates have finally fallen under 6%, a welcome sign for real estate.

The Ten-Year Treasury Yield has dropped to 3.97%. this is just a few ticks above the November low of 3.94%. Yes, this is what Trump wants to cover for his disastrous tariff policies. But it is hard to see why given an inflation rate of 2.7%, well above the FED target of 2%.

TCU’s Neeley School of Business is offering an eight-week course regarding what a real, versus Tommy Norris aka Paramount, landman actually does. The class has a focus on land management. In addition,  oil, gas, wind and solar development are also covered. Practicing landmen will also lecture in class to give real world exposure.

 

Major Indexes Remain Range Bound

 2/26/2026

 

In fact the PMO in all three cases looks like it is bottoming and about to turn up. teh blue arrow on teh INDU chart marks the spot. A weekly break above the recent highs will  invalidate the bear case for the time. 

ten yer yields closed at 4.017, lower not higher.

March silver closed down $2. at  $88.89. 

Crude oil up a nickel at $65.47.

 In short no big changes, watching range bound stocks.  

Teh weekly charts are down but not significantly, we will update this weekend on the weekly close. 

Counter trend Rally Should be ending

 2/25/2026

NDX bounced back after the big well off Friday. On the hourly chart it is about done.

 RSi and PMO are about done to the upside.  Recent highs cannot be taken out. Jan u29 high was 26,100 thereabouts.

Bonds are taking their time raising rates.

Silver should be about done to the upside rebound. 

Latest Epstein Casualties

 2/25/2026

 Why Melinda Divorced Bill Gates

Bill admits to two 'affairs' 

In the dark days of the cold war, circa 1960s, if aUS official met an attractive Russian woman during a Russian visit, the default assumption - she is a spy, and Bill did not know that?

________________________

Lawrence Summers Resigns ALL Harvard positions 

________________________

Prince Andrews OUT of Royal windsor Lodge 

________________________ 

Former UK Cabinet Minister and US Ambassador Arrested 

____________________________________ 

Nothing New About Such Trysts

Bill Clinton and Monica Lewinsky 

___________________________

 Wilbur Mills and Fanne 'teh Rgentine Firecracker' Foxe 

Meet Fanne Foxe 

____________________________

Google Jack Kennedy and Marilyn Monroe

____________________________

1961 Profumo Affair Takes Down a UK PM 

benefits of Student membership in SA TXCPA

 2/25/2026

No cost to join TXCPA 

A Significant Decline Underway

 2/23/2026

Highs occurred as follows

NDX 1/28

 SPX 2/11

INDU 2/10

Note the tech heavy NDX topped first

 Primary waves are red, lower degree are blue, third of three now underway

50,512 - 48,804 = 1,7080 points since February 10

You would never know that listening to the experts on Charles Payne's FOX Business show this afternoon, all clear ahead the say

SPX

INDU

 

 

AI Takes a Toll  on Software Companies

here are three prominent software companies I am glad I do not own 

Bond prices have not declined yet, but should soon if 3.934% on the long bond is not violated

Silver should advance to the  93-95 area before declining again
 

We Are Concerned.. About Private Equity - Bessent

 2/23/2026

So what are you going to do about it? 

 "We are concerned," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Friday when asked about the growth of Blue Owl and other private lenders over recent years. "If there is something rotten, it is not going to be handed to the individual investors," Bessent said.

 

_______________________

 

This sounds a lot like the head of the PCAOB saying a 40% deficiency rate in public audits they examined is 'unacceptable.'  Here to, so what are you gonna do about it?

 

Tuesday April 7 Internal Audit Baseball Night

 2/23/2026

You're invited to attend the

Meet The Pros - Networking at the Missions Baseball Park!

Tuesday, April 7, 2026 5:00 pm - 8:00 PM Missions Baseball Stadium Free to register and comes with admission, food, and drinks. Parking is $8 to be paid by the attendee.  Limited to 25 students and 25 professionals.

Register Now

Decline invitation

Check out the event website!

We hope to see you there!

 

Wild Crazy Leveraged ETFs Abound at DOW 50,000

 2/23/226

Those include the 21shares 2x Long Dogecoin ETF, which charges investors a 1.89% annual fee—or $189 on a $10,000 investment—for the opportunity to double their exposure, up or down, to Dogecoin, a meme cryptocurrency. The fund is down some 70% in three months since its late November launch.

For a 0.99% fee, investors can own the Tuttle Capital MSTR 0DTE Covered Call ETF, also down about 70% since it was launched in October. The fund seeks to provide big dividend payouts through an approach that includes trading option contracts on Strategy stock that expire the same day.

______________________

Such activity does not occur in the summer of 2002, the low of the dot.com collapse. Nor did it happen in March 2009 at the low of the sub prime collapse. It only hapens amid the mania of new all time highs.  

 

Interview with Cynthia Cooper

 2/22/2026

Cynthia Cooper was the Internal Auditor who  blew the whistle on Worldcom excess. 

This is an interview with Cynthia.

Counter Trend Rally Ending NDX

 2/21/2026

NDX tech led on the way up. It is ahead of INDU and SPX on the way down. INDU is the last hold out because it has the least concentration of tech stocks. NDX with the most has fallen further than the other two for that reason. 

 I drew the red line a few posts back. NDX has now returned to the prvious peak a few days ago. The red arrows at RSI and PMO suggest a top in these momentum indicators. Notice PMO made a much higher high back on the final high of Jan 26. 

PSQ is the opposite of NDX. Its indicator should be bottoming that is RSI and PMO, Here is PSQ with the same indicators in the same time frame, one month, in an hourly the same chart.

PMO at bottom and RSI at top look like they are about to turn up. One should start scaling in purchase of PSQ. 

Bonds

See previous post on bonds. It appears the long correction of the move up in yields from March 2020 is ending in a long fourth wave. this makes sense when viewed with the NDX above. If stock price are about to fall, bond prices should do the same. After the final low in the stock market in 1982 prices began slowly rising. But they did not really take off until 1984. And that is when bond prices really began rising and yields began falling.  We are now in exactly the opposite situation. And no wonder, 1984 was four years out from the yield high in 1980-81. We are five years out from the yield low in March 2020. The rise from .5% to 4.2% in the ten year T Note has been dramatic. Trump would like to turn back the bond  cycle buy neither he nor Marsh, if appointed, can do so.  Hint to Marsh, there is still time to just say no and avoid the career wreck. 

In previous posts note that Saks 2.2B bond offering in Dec 2024 went officially bust in Jan 2026, wow that was quick. Tricolor, bust overnight. First Brands on life support via the car companies. Thomson luxury hotel in SA opened, whoops  that covid thing, in 2021. Despite two  cash injections, it will be sold on the Bexar Courthouse steps March 3. J P Morgan lost $170 M on Tricolor and another $175M on Charlie Javice Fank fraud. Now on the hook for her 'legal expenses' up to  $74M and counting. See a pattern here? 

 Oh and then there is Blue Owl private equity halting redemptions. Think a financial version of the TV ad for the roach motel. You can check in but you cannot check out.  Blue Owl suspends regular buy backs .Investors, read pigeons, will now receive orderly liquidations, return of their money, if and when Owl manages to sell more assets which they did this week. Gee, just a few months ago investors were going to hit the big time with private equity. Translation, an exchange with no ticker tape.  Ares and KKR down 8 and 12% in one day. 

Senator Elizabeth Warren utilized a "cockroach" metaphor on February 19, 2026, suggesting that Blue Owl’s troubles are just the first visible sign of a much larger infestation in the $1.7 trillion shadow banking system. She has called for immediate federal stress tests on private credit exposures, a move that could lead to tighter capital requirements for firms like Blue Owl and Apollo. 

This is how bear markets start, from great to uh oh seemingly overnight. 
 

The Bond Market

 2/20/2026

 TLT lost 50% of its value from March 2020 to teh thrd wave low Oct 2023. A long fourth wave is now ending. 

TBF Bear Bond Fund

 TBF bounced off its low into its next rally. PMO is bottoming as is RSI. 

Time to buy TBF. 

Job Opening

 2/20/2026

🚨 JOB ALERT 🚨

Okay y’all this is a GOOD one 👀🔥

🏢 Senior Accountant
📍 Work location: Toyota Plant
🏭 Company: Forma, LLC (Tier 1 supplier for the Tundra & Tacoma trucks 🚗💨)

They’re looking for someone with accounting experience — cost accounting experience is a big plus 👏

This is real industry exposure. Manufacturing. Costing. Inventory. Production.

If you’re interested, send your resume directly to:
📩 delam@tamsua.edu

 

The Complete Sherlock Holmes Movies with Basil Rathbone

 2/20/2026

The classes have had some learning fun reading the original Sherlock Holmes s tories. 

Many movies have been made starring various indi,viduals as Holmes. Perhaps the best known is the 

 

Basil Rathbone and Nigel Bruce series.  

I count 14 movies from  1939 to 1946. Whatever you think you can't beat the price fun stuff for you and the kids, no four letter words or scanty customes in this series.  

Iran Takes Center Stage

 2/20/2026

Iran Takes Center Stage

 

The US has assembled what analysts are calling its largest military deployment near Iran since the Iraq War. The armada consists of two carrier strike groups, over 50 fighter jets, Patriot and THAAD systems near Iran amid rising tensions and stalled nuclear talks.

Media Sources

President Trump warned Iran against killing civilian protestors.  Estimates range from a few to many thousand killed. The US did not have significant military presence in the area in recent weeks.. As mentioned, the US does now. Both the most advanced carrier USS Gerald Ford and Abraham Lincoln are on alert nearby Iran These carrier groups are supplemented by Patriot and the HAAD air defense batteries these systems are designed to yield US troops from Iran missile attacks.

President Trump has given the Iran regime ten days to meet his terms.  The idea is to remove Iran as a nuclear threat and ideally institute regime change.

West Texas Intermediate crude is trading at $66.28. Prices jumped decisively above $65. Yesterday. If Iran’s ability to export oil to China is interrupted (that is to put it mildly) oil price might be expected to rise further.

Wall Street has checked out on the Magnificent Seven and in on energy Schlumberger SB has risen from $38 to $51 this year.  Bell weather Apache APA rose from $38 to $51. Translation, there is considerable anticipation that oil prices will rise and stay higher.

All of this may not bode well for Trump’s promise to lower gasoline pr ices.  Unleaded gasoline futures (without taxes at the pump) has risen form $1.70 to $2.00. Iran is seen as the most disruptive force in the Middle East. It is part of the Axis of Russia, China, and North Korea who seek to disrupt all things in the West. This confrontation has further implications. It will send a message to Putin on what the US is willing to do in Ukraine. Chinese {resident Xi is surely looking for clues as to the US intentions on Taiwan. Obama ignored his red line in Syria. It appears Trump will not ignore his red line in Iran.

The NDX NASD 100 trades at 25,000. This is 1,000 points above its November low. Trading under that level will suggest lower prices across the markets.

It appears the ten-year Treasury note yield has bottomed at  4.02%. Rates have already risen to 4.09%. That does not sound significant but it is. Rising above 4.3% will set the target on 5%. This will be quite upsetting to President Trump but this is reality. The FED only sets the overnight inter-bank lending rate.

Professorelam.blogspot.com

 

Canadians Say US, not Russia, is World Problem

 2/19/224

Canadian Social Mood turns negative toward the US 

 Markets expand on positive social mood.  Canadian mood towards America has turned down, probably permanently. Would a survey in Mexico be much different? The markets are rolling over as is the long term relation of Canada and the US.

SA Luxury Hotel Faces Foreclosure

 2/19/2026

Class

 

The uscale hotel opened in  2021, refinanced in 20245 due to covid no doubt. But after missing four debt payments, second time around, the creditor is foreclosing. I would say downtown SA is overbuilt on hotels, yet another is being built at Hemisfair. The Riverwalk is no the Golden Goose it is cracked up to be.  Saks, Tricolor, First Brands, Carlie Javice, Thompson, see a pattern here?

________________________

SA EN 2/19/2026 

 

The upscale Thompson San Antonio-Riverwalk hotel downtown is slated to be sold at a foreclosure auction next month, with owner DC Partners saying it has been hit hard by high interest rates and a growing number of hotel rooms for visitors to choose from.

Lex Avenue Hotel LLC, a company linked to Houston-based DC Partners, borrowed $44 million from Southern Realty Trust and an affiliate to refinance the hotel in 2024. The company fell behind on its payments and was given four chances to pay its past-due amount but has not met its obligations, prompting Southern Realty Trust to seek to foreclose on the property at 115 Lexington Ave., according to a notice.

The hotel, a Hyatt-affiliated property with 162 rooms and 33 suites, is slated to be sold at next month's Bexar County foreclosure auction. In a statement, DC Partners did not address whether it is working on repayment.

"Like many hospitality assets across the country, Thompson San Antonio's performance has been significantly impacted by a combination of prolonged stabilization timelines, a high influx of hotel properties downtown, and most significantly today's elevated interest rate environment," the company said. "These factors - including opening during COVID and a broader softness in the San Antonio hotel market - created challenges that were not anticipated and challenging to overcome."

"This is not a reflection of the quality of the asset or the long-term viability of the project, but rather a convergence of market forces affecting many developers across the country," the developer added.

he 20-story hotel makes up part of the property, which also has 59 condominium units known as the Arts Residences that are not part of the foreclosure posting.

DC Partners began construction on the $130 million project in 2018. When the Thompson opened in 2021, it was the first luxury hotel to be built in San Antonio in more than five years and has commanded some of the highest rates in the city.

But it is facing more competition. The Kimpton Santo San Antonio-Riverwalk, the Plaza San Antonio Hotel & Spa and the InterContinental San Antonio Riverwalk hotels have opened downtown in recent years, and the Monarch San Antonio is on track to debut at Hemisfair this spring.

Supply is also outpacing demand, with fewer international and business travelers visiting San Antonio and some leisure visitors spending less because of concerns about the economy.

This article originally published at Luxury hotel in downtown San Antonio is slated for foreclosure.

___________________

These factors — including opening during Covid and a broader softness in the San Antonio hotel market — created challenges that were not anticipated and challenging to overcome,” the firm’s spokesperson told the outlet, adding that the situation reflects market conditions rather than the property’s long-term viability.

The foreclosure comes less than two years after Miami-based 3650 REIT provided a $38 million refinancing in 2022, followed by the $44 million refinancing from Sunrise and Southern in 2024. At the time, Sunrise and Southern CEO Brian Sedrish said the loan highlighted confidence in DC Partners as well as demand for upscale accommodations in Texas.

Now that notion is being tested.

The 162-key hotel was among a new class of high-end hospitality projects aimed at elevating San Antonio’s River Walk offerings. But as new rooms have come online and borrowing costs have climbed, operators have faced margin pressure in a market that historically depends on convention and leisure demand, according to the publication. — E

 

 

 

Looks a lot like 1973

 2/18/2026

Stocks off to worst start since 1995 

NDX ralies to Downtrend Line

 2/18/2026

 The media will claim the markets rallied today, well they did until they did not and pulled back. NDX has powered the rally with its tech heavy contents. Here the NDX was turned back at the downtrend line once agan. No te teh PMO at bottom is reording lower highs. Same thing more or less for RSI at top. The markets are slowly rolling over.

 SPX is catching up on the downside. teh triple top shows slightly lower highs. takng out the two February lows will be significant.

TLT 2 Yr Bond

 I am using TLT as it displays a bar chart format in stokcharts. RSI is toping as is PMO at bottom. The sharp rally was a result of the stock melt down last week, specifically in the Transports. 

Here is a view of 1 year yields since the March 2020 low. teh  at the 3/202 low is actually .5%, I wonder who bought those at that level? A long correction from the start of 2024 is now ending, watch teh Donald start to really get upset. 

 

 

TBF a bear bond fund which advances as bond prices fall and rates rise

 TBF has been correcting for some time. Long bonds hit 4.1% above the November low at 3.95%. Bond prices should begin falling and rates rising this week. Never mind what the FED says listen to the market. 

Silvr is rallying. We will update when an entry to ZSL is appropriate.

 

CBO Cites Spiralling Debt Crisis

 2/17/226

CBO sees trust funds collapsing by 2033 

This is a must read, and no one in either party is doing anything about it. 

Tuesday 2/17/2026

 2/17/2026

Transports look like they a normal rebound completion right to the  50 bar moving average.

 The NDX led on the way up and  is leading on teh way down. It is far closer to its late November low than the other averages. So far  NDX is under the trend line from the late January high. 

An expert suggests the AI mania is building to a Hindenberg Moment. 

 Silver, is it forming a base for a rebound?  Could be

10-20 year bond Fund

Bonds and Utilties rallied on the stock sell off, looks about done

 

The striking thing is how little rally we have had since last week sell off.  the markets are rolling over it is just a matter of time until NDX  takes out the November low. 

$2 T Wipeout

 2/16/2026

$2 T gone in software market 

As said Friday, just like betting no dot.coms 

What Could Go Wrong - Dr. Strangelove

 2/14/2026

Stanley Kubrick Ultimate Satire on the Cold War 

Casablanca Modern Trailer

 2/14/2026

Casablanca Trailer 

Jose Feliciano, Best Classical Guitarist on This Planet

 2/14/226

Light My Fire 

hCalifornia Dreamin' 

National Anthem - thisis not Bad Bunny 

Flight of the Bumbullbee Windmills of Your Mind - Theme from Thomas Crown Affair

Ain't No Sunshine 

Sergio Mendes Brazil 66 Mas Que Nada

 2/14/2026

Mas Que Nada 

Fool in the Hill, A Beatles Song 

One Note Samba / Spanish Flea 

Spaghetti Western Trilogy, Danish Symphony

 2/13/2026

Fist full of Dollars

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4niv522mbtM&list=RD4niv522mbtM&start_radio=1

For a Few Dollars More

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DT1NJwEi6nw&list=RDDT1NJwEi6nw&start_radio=1

Good Bad Ugly

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=enuOArEfqGo&list=RDenuOArEfqGo&start_radio=1

Jose Gomez former CPA explai ns why he set up a $350M Fraud and Went to Prison

 2/13/2026

Jose was with Alexander Grant forerunner to Grant Thornton 

Transports Take a Hit

 2/13/2026

Transports Take a Hit

 

Charles Dow first published his Industrial and Transportation index in the mid-1880s. the Industrials manufactured goods and the Transportation companies moved them. Cable TV business shows detail for the Industrials, SPX, NASD, and NDX. The Transportation and Utility index are not quoted on the ticker. Typically the Transports lead the direction of the market.

Yesterday, Thursday,  a former Karaoke machine seller, is now a supply chain guru.  Algorythm Holdings announced that Artificial Intelligence would improv efficiency in the trucking business. The market reaction was immediate.

 

C H Robinson dropped15%. Expeditors International dropped 13%. The overall Transport Index dropped 5%, recovering to minus 4%. The DOW dropped 1.3% or 670 points. The NASD dropped 2%. Understand these are not year to date drops, these are one day declines. Markets are modestly higher today. There is always a fundamental event to validate the technical picture of the market.

I have warned of over valuation for months but this is the first real warning. The situation is quite similar to the dot.com peak of March 2000.  Then the NASD tacked on 3,500 points from 1998 to 2000. That was on top of the 1500 points which took from 1982 to 1998 Maximum mood comes at the end of a market run. The thinking was that every dot.com would be wildly successful. They weren’t. The NASD then lost 75% falling to 1500 two years later.

This time Nvidia and the Magnificent Seven stocks are all the rage. AI is the new dot.com mania.  Now an ETF of the Magnificent Seven is down 10% this year.  A clear sell signal will be when the major indexes drop below the November low.

Home sales fell 8.4% in January. Snowstorms and sagging confidence led to the drop.

The energy news is ala bout Russia’s diminished prospects. Ural crude is now trading at a 25% discount to Brent. Ural crude is now priced at $45, well below the $59 needed to balance the Russian budget. It is estimated that there are 143 M Russian barrels floating in ships around the world.US  and European sanctions have closed the Indian markets. Buyers are extracting the heavy discount when and if there are sales. If unsold, Russia will have to halt production due to lack of storage. The bottom line is that revenue is not enough to support the oil fields. Russia really has no consumer economy, just crude oil. It will be  more difficult to sustain the Ukraine war. Things look bleak in Cuba. Cut off from Venezuela oil and set adrift by Russia, everything from electricity to gasoline to food is in short supply. The US plan to regain the Western Hemisphere is working.

www.professorelam.blogspot.com

 

 

Transports Crack

 2/12/2026

Transport Index 

A laterally kept TRAN from dro[[om %, even so down 4% in one day.  The November low is around 15,500, so we have another 3,500 points to go for real confirmation but this is a great start.

Here are the two big losers

 Expeditors down 13.25%, off the lows, 

and CH Robinson down 14.59%

Already this year CH 11 for Saks, First Brands  

Today Blackrock drops $400M on a private equity loan see prior post

Tricolor CH 7 overnight, forget Plan B

EY issues a critical audit matter over Meta moving a $27 B data center off the balance sheet, the last big company to do such was Enron with its Special Purpose Enties SPE

Sudden bankruptcies, stocks drop 14% in a day and these are not crypto or MEME stocks, real companies. 

NDX

 NDX lead the way up and is now leading the way down, it is only about 1,000 points above its November low. In a flight to quality T bonds and Utility stocks rallied, this is to be expected but I think both are short term moves. 

/Blackrock Subsidiary Loss $400M Loan, Now worth Zero2/12/2026

 2/12/2024

An Analyst take on this 

I would say he is splitting hairs not blaming due diligence, more follow up he says

The facts below 

 Hedgeco Analysis

WSJ story 

SA Accounting Job Market Update 2/18

 2/12/2026

Wednesday Feb 18, 5 30 - 8 00 PM San Antonio Institute of Management Accountants will have  a 

two part program The first hour will deal with managing family owned business. The second hour

will present the current state of the SA accounting job market. That hour should be of great value to all 

accounting students.  Click on the link to see the program and register. 

 

TSBPA CPA Exam Webinar on changes to the exam

 2/11/2026

Texas State Board of Public Accountancy
Webinar for Texas Accounting Educators,
CPA Exam Applicants, and Accounting Students:

CPA Exam and Certification Pathways for Texas

February 27, 2026  |  10:00 AM (Central time)

REGISTER NOW

The Texas State Board of Public Accountancy invites Texas accounting educators and advisors, along with CPA Exam applicants and accounting students, to participate in an important webinar focused on recent changes to the CPA Exam and certification pathways in Texas. 

 

Why Educators and Advisors Should Attend

This session provides timely insights to help educators advise students and stay current on administrative changes to requirements for the CPA Exam and certification.

 

Why CPA Exam Applicants and Accounting Students Should Attend

This session provides information to assist applicants and students understand the education and work experience requirements for the CPA Exam and certification.

 

Bullish Percent Indicator

 2/10/2026

 The 2025 rally was tech based. Here is the daily bullish percent for the NDX. PMO is bottominfg/ The MAs in the large chart look like they too will soon bottom indicating a change of direction. Hard to believe but after all my bearish comments the last few weeks, ok months, this looks like a buy even though everything is wildly over bought. 

Summation Index for NASD looks like it is bottoming as well.  

 Monthly DOW

At top RSI is certainly extended. PMO at bottom is high but it has been higer before breaking over. Trend is near vertical which is NOT the time to buy. Strange times. More tomorrow 

 

FBI Report on Lindgergh Baby Kidnapping

 2/8/2026

FBI Report 

Yes it was 1932-35 but a great example of police and forensic investigation 

Employers Value Certifications

 2/6/2026

Dartmouth President Sian Leah Beilock’s op-ed “Is a Four-Year Degree Worth It?” (Jan. 26) is a respectable start at transforming campuses across America. What is missing is the proper customer orientation. If we consider the customer to be potential employers, it is easier to see where universities must focus attention.

Employers value professional certifications—such as Chartered Financial Analyst or Professional Engineer certification. While a four-year degree now often demonstrates merely acceptable attendance, a certification demonstrates skills, acumen and judgment that portend value in the workplace. Additionally, employers value work experience—internships directly related to a student’s career path. In many cases, such experiences are prerequisites for professional certifications.

Universities should focus more attention in integrating industry standards of competence into their curriculum. Many have already done so. These will be the ones that survive the looming market shakeout.

Dean Em. Charles Crespy

Central Michigan University

Mount Pleasant, Mich.

 

DOW Indexes Sprint to New Highs

  

Dow Complex Notches New high

 

There is a strong upward cycle into next week. That cycle has taken the DOW Industrials and Transports to a new high. The Industrials have risen an amazing 883 points just 75 minutes into today’s session. The NDX, NASD 100, has held support at the previous mid-November low and is up 1.21% this Friday morning. The SPX has held above its mid-December low and is up 1.29%

 

The AI Innovation and Tech ETF is BAI. It just dropped form 36 to 32 and has rebounded to 33.67. The idea is that Artificial Intelligence will take over computer coding making these companies the new version of eight track tape manufacturers. The SOX semi-conductor index has long been the best indicator of the health of the chip makers. It has soared from the April 2025 low of 3500 to 7886. This reflects the mania over AI chips. Nvidia, the leading AI chip maker sold of from 192 to 172 but is also rallying today to 183.

The bearish case is definitely on hold.

I read that various Wall Street types think Trump’s pick of Kevin Marsh will steady the Fed’s independence. It is known that Trump thinks over night rates should be at 1-2%, not the current 3.75%. Anyone who fails to do Trump’s bidding does not hang around for long.  Ask any of his four National Security Advisors from his first term. First Brands is an auto parts maker of  well known brands like Michelin tires and FRAM oil filters. After running through $1.1 B earlier this month, further loans were not forthcoming. The auto makers themselves have had to furnish financing to keep supply lines open. Now the CEO is under indictment for   double selling invoices, some of which were apparently fake.

 

 The ten-year Treasury Note yield bottomed in late November around 3.94%, It has risen to a recent high of 4.3%. the last few days it has backed off to 4.21%. Recall the 39-year low in interest rates occurred in March 2020 with the Note yielding a mere .5%. the rise off that low has been impressive. Given the cycle low, it is hard to see lower rates ahead.

 

The world is awash in debt. In 1960 global debt was $290 billion. Today it is more than $40 trillion. This is a 135x increase. At the same time the spread between corporate bond and Ten-Year Treasury yields is the lowest in 28 years.  There is the lowest fear of default in years while we have more debt than ever.

The good news for the Basin is crude oil at $64.05. Energy stocks have been front and center in the latest trend that trashed chip stocks with war cycles brewing in February look for stronger crude prices

Professorelam.blogspot.com