Clouds on the Horizoh

 4/10/2026

Clouds on the Horizon

The US and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire, but economic warfare is here to stay.

Iran flexes Its Muscles, WSJ today

If one had no knowledge of the last few weeks, reading the press reports today would give on no clue as to the Israel and US attack on Iran. Now Iran wants to run a ‘toll booth’ on ships crossing the Hormuz Strait. Worse, Trump suggested the US and Iran might partner on this, an idea  the White House later denied.

There is a parallel to the US situation in 1973-74. The Stock Market had just hit new highs, then as now.  Interest rates were rising. The country was reeling from the energy shock of the first Arab embargo. The President was unpopular with the press and the country was politically divided. Nixon had a written enemies list. The Democrats finally pounced on the accidental admission Nixon taped Oval Office conversations. Nixon never recovered finally resigning rather than face impeachment. History never exactly repeats but consider recent events.

·      During a Ford plant visit January 13, trump replied to an auto worker comment with a vulgar hand gesture and a four-letter comment. Trump later rejects Ford’s plea for aluminum tariff relief.

·      Trump fires AG Bondie for failing to legally pursue his enemies.

·      On Easter Sunday Trump referred to Iran as ‘crazy bastards’ again invoking vulgar remarks regarding the Hormuz Strait. Yes, the same country he suggested partnering with a week later to share Hormuz tolls.

·      Trump threatens to wipe out the entire Iranian civilization.

·      On cue, Democrats file articles of impeachment against both President trump and SecDef Hegseth.

·       For good measure, Democrats call for the President’s removal via the 25^th Amendment.

In 973, the markets held up for several months and then began a relentless trudge to a 50% loss at Dow 577 by December, 1974.

All this has a familiar ring to me. Few if any of today’s financial advisors experienced this negative bout of social mood.

The stock market has managed a re-bound from the ‘military attack’ sell-off of 10%. It is remarkable that the markets are this high amid $100 oil. While August oil futures trade in the low $80s, uncertainty about the Middle East remains even higher than usual.

 The six weeks of military action have ended. Republicans facing mid-term elections have apparently begged for a halt in the fighting. And so here we are.

Thirty-year bond prices have fallen from 1181 to 112 and like stocks, have rebounded a  couple of points. It It is hard to see the FED justifying a rate cut amid $100 oil prices. That oil price uncertainty is likely to last for some time.

Trump mis-took the ease of removing Venezuela’s Maduro with  re-making a 6,000 year-old Persian Empire.

Caution is advised.

 

Oil and Stocks Rise

 4/9/2026

Crude oil is back up $5 to $99, yet stocks rose a half percentage point, just goes to show the wave theory has validity.  Stocks gained 1,200 DOW points on a drop in oil but rose again on a rise in oil.

If anything, the danger to the US from Iran is now much higher given their desire for revenge. Trump seems to have mistaken snatching Maduro same as snatching an entire country. Leaving the Iran regime in power is quite dangerous. 

My view is unchanged, wave two up in stocks could already be done, it should not last much longer. 

Oil is expensive here though we have plenty due to arbitrage. If oil were $65 here, tankers from the rest of the world would line up to by, it's a global market.  

 

More this weekend.  

Wave Two Opens Higher

 4/8/2026

OK, analysis, I should have gone aggressively short on the move down from all time highs, the crossover of PMO and drop of RSI. Given Trump ultimatum, no trade would have been better yesterday but a small addition not big loss. 

 In fact the upside occurred in Globex before the market openned in the US. No real follow thru, lots of short covering. Now RSI and PMO are near max, more possible but...

Now what Donald?  Iran can claim to have lasted the Great Satan, still in control of Hormuz, and can send rockets  to its neighbors? And now there is a two week window  for Iran to recover.

NDX Reistance

 the red line should mark a resistance area before the rally ends. 

Bond prices rallied a bit along with stocks. Bond and stock prices will resume their downtrends, patience.

I don't see trying gold and silver at this point. 

Do not believe calm has returned, check out this NBC report.  Those readers old enough to recall Watergate, can see echoes of that sentiment here. While the Republican controlled Senate will not likely vote to convict and I doubt the narrow control House will,  imagine  the Dems controlling both Houses after November.  My map for 226-227 is in fact  1973-74 where the DOW dropped 50% in two years.

___________ 

 

More than 70 lawmakers, including a handful of senators, said in separate social media posts that Trump's Cabinet needs to invoke the 25th Amendment to the Constitution and declare him unfit to serve, Congress should impeach and convict him, or both.

"The House and Senate must return to session. The House must pass articles of impeachment, and then the Senate must vote to convict and remove the President. Or, the cabinet and Vice President, with congressional concurrence, must invoke the 25th Amendment and remove Trump," Sen. Ed Markey, D-Mass., wrote in a statement on X.

Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., said he agreed with calls to invoke the 25th Amendment, adding: “No President in control of his senses would publicly promise to eradicate an entire civilization.”

wmT Update / Wave Two Ending

 4/7/2026

Sure glad I watched WMT from the sideline. After amazing growth the last five years

WMT tanked four bucks today. 

 

OK WMT is going to digital tags and the stock tanks, more likely long term profit taking. 

SPX

 I added short positions and more orders under the market. Lore has it that there is alwaus a fundamental event to justify the technicals, the technicals are saying sell, at least I think so. Here are some fundamentals

Profanity laced threat by Trump Easter Day

Military Action in Mid East upsetting idea that investing and living there is safe

Bernie Sanders wants to regulate AI - I saw a 65 inch flat TV in WMT today for $328, imagine what it would cost if Bernie were in charge of fair pricing for the working man's TV

Iran has placed women and children around sites Trump threatens to bomb 

EU is kinda sorta trying to help the Iran action

Oil is $114, gasoline $4 a rising, don't buy the story it will collapse when Hormuz clears

 DHS is unfunded

There is a shortage of computer chips

Interest rates are rising

Federal fraud in medicare, hospice, autism, 

Sh is short SPX, I added at market and placed orders at lower prices

If wave three down is confirmed this week, I will add more short positions 

 

  

  

 

 

 

Pizza

 4/6/2026

ONe does not go out of business because of poor pizza

 

It is always cash flow. Gna Maries 

Junk Bond Investors Head for Exits

 4/6/2026

Junk Bond Warning 

Higher Junk Yields are a sign junk investors are worried, junk bonds are as my friends as EWI say, stocks in drag, hmm. Wave Two in stocks should top this week 

 

Wave Two Continues

 4/6/2026

Wave Two up i major stock indexes continues, not done yet.

The move up in bond yields has been slow but is on track

No comment on oil or silver I have no positions there.  

Wave two Completing

 4/5/2026

I ran a comment that one fund manager looks at the WMT versus luxury goods indicator. When  WMT was outpacing luxury, often a recession looms. I tried that with LVMH but it is too erratic a stock, boy how is it, so i used Ralph Lauren RL  really a more broad based consumer oriented firm I own RL polos but nothing from LVMH. 

 

WMT began to outpace RL in late 2025. This makes sense as  the NDX roped 10/29/2026 and then the SOX 1/28/2026 and INDU 2/10/226. Once time passed 2/10 the move up accelerates, amazing how this stuff works, eh?

WMT has doubled in the last two years and is still climbing.  Daily has sold off and looks like a bottom Dillards DDS  has been aspectacular performer and is now bottoming

Other candidates include Starbucks SBUX,  Tractor Supply TXCO,  Home Depot HD has not turned up yet but bears watching. It could be that all these are good buy and write a call option for income and protection. 

okay how about XRT the retail ETF

 

RSI at top is rising and the slower PMO at bottom  is as well. The MAs have crossed, sure looks like a bottom. 

the majors suggest retail is just having its own Wave Two, we shaell see this week.  

Now let's look at the majors

 INDU in large panel looks like a Wave Two counter trend will fail at the 50 day MA. 200 MA is trending down, same for SPX and NDX top and bottom.

Media is now referring to this as Trump's War, Peggy Noonan in her weekend column makes the case Trump olays this like a real estate deal quoting from Art of the Deal. Shes right and it  is not reassuring.  Why he chose to do this before the mid-terms,well,  Republicans are worrying. 

I will keep uodating frequently as it looks like a turn to the downside.  

 

Oil Sopikes

 4/3/2026

Energy Prices Spike

 

The cost of U.S. crude oil continued pushing higher to more than $111 per barrel, up nearly 12% since Wednesday, its biggest one-day price jump in six years. For the year, it's now up 94%.

NBC News April 2, 2026

Today, Friday Apri 3, 2026, May West Texas Crude is $112.06, up   $11.94 since Thursday.  Trump’s speech Wednesday night offered continued fighting while Iran denies the existence of any talks. Distant oil futures  continue to take the short -erm volatility in stride. November 2026 WTIC is trading for $73.24, up a mere 86 cents from Thursday.

One might think the administration would want to exhibit a steady as she goes appearance in the midst of ‘the military action.’ That is not the case. Defense Secretary Hegseth has fired Army Chief of Staff General Randy George, General David Hodne, and Major General William Green Jr.  green was head of the Arm’s Chaplain Corps. Apparently there is no safety for ministers either.

The DOW fell over 600 points following Trump’s talk and then recovered most of the loss. Today markets are little changed.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports 178,000 jobs added in March. That is better than the 133,000 jobs reported lost in February.  Most of the job gains were in health care.

The Dow remains 4,000 points below its February 10 high. The SPX and NDX are also below all-time highs.

While the Military Action and the Artemis space shot dominate the news, elsewhere there are problems GM sales fell 9.7% in the first quarter, the most in four years. Higher interest rates and gasoline prices seem to have buyers sidelined. Exxon Mobil’s touted biofuel algae program is not delivering the promised results.

The latest sure-fire idea for your portfolio is also having difficulties. Private Equity, funds invested in non-public enterprises, was touted as the next big thing. But seems investors are having trouble redeeming as much as they would like. Such funds are illiquid and cannot be returned on demand.  In the last year Blue Owl has dropped from $20 to $8.57.

Mortgage rates have risen to 6.46%, impacting home sales.  The Ten -Year Treasury Note yields 4.3%. Our prediction is that it will rise above the previous high of 5.03%

Elon Musk Space X plans a fall IPO on his birthday.  The plan is to raise more than $75 billion. This may result is a market capitalization of $1.75 trillion. That would surely set a record for IPOs.  New market highs spawn ambitious projects. This will be one to watch, a stellar valuation indeed.

www.professorelam.blogspot.com

 

Value Line Geometric ,Equal Weight, Makes a Stand

 4/2/2026

 I drew in the blue neckline months ago, and the XVG is making a stand right here. 

And adding to the confusion, WMT is doing the same, do we need to go long? Maybe

WMT is a proxy stock for the entire market and it looks like a screaming buy,  readers I am not married to one idea.

 

 I added the 50 day MA, notice it tested and rebounded right there, See PMO bottoming in lower panel. 

If this were easy we would not need a day job... 

 

Gleim Review Mterial forTAMUSA Students

 4/2/2026

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A Perfect Socio Moment - See last night blog comment

 4/2/2026

 

Oil surges and US stock futures fall after Trump offers no clear timeline to end war in Iran

Jake Conley, Breaking Business News Reporter

Updated Thu, April 2, 2026 at 6:22 AM CDT

2 min read

Add Yahoo as a preferred source to see more of our storie\\

 

Trump talks at top of counter trend wave two withj predictable results 

 

I suggested last night that it would be a prefect sociomonic moment if the markets fell, stocks or rose, oil, after his remarks. This speech should have preceeded the Iran attacks not come trying to salvage some support from the American public and the EU.

 

Now switch to page B 12 of today's WSJ for more on the socio moment.

 

Stock Market Rally Enters Day Two

 

No one on Wall St wants to be on the wrong side ofa  post war rally.

Stock market climed in advance of Trump speech (how did teh two authors know that?) up 10.2% up .7% blah blah..faith in economic resilience and hedging (show me an average investor ho is hedging)  and of course, traders don't want to miss out, FOMO, reading hte tea leaves, the war won't pumel the bull case, oil prices slipped Wdnesday  (but not Thursday) widely divergent scenarios, investors scrambling to protect themselves

 

Okay that was edited but you get therift, the authors are clueless as to what is going on, grasping to link market action with some physical event

 

Readers of this blog will not be scrambling as we have a method called the Elliott Wave. this alerted us to a short term trend change Friday and an impending short term top which happened even faster than i imagined. 

 

The larger Wave 3 down has begun, see my list of bear funds yesterday and start buying.

Well the hourly chart has already bounced back giving a better bear buy, let's see what happens this afternoon.

 

 

dennis.elam@att.net 

 

 

 

Counter Trend Rally nears End

 4/1/026

the large panel is a textbok example of a five wave decline and then an A B C Wave 2 rebound. The rebound has been strong, typical of bear markets

 

PSQ short the NDX 100 or QQ has retraced a FIB 38% of its rally.  Wave three up for bear fnds and Wave three down for major market indexes should begin soon.  From a social mood standpoint, Trump's speech tonight might be a perfect kick-off to a third wave down in the markets, the exact opposite of what he hopes for.  despite all the targeting, Iran still controls the Strait. And he failed to get Allies or the American pubic on board. Now Allies balk and the public is angry at Mr.  I will lower gasoline prices and stay out of foreign wars. 

Here are the bear funds, I will recommend a strong position on a reversal in these markets

Bear Funds

Symbol            Name

HDGE            Hedge

PSQ              short NDX

DWSH          Dwight                Short NASD

RWM            Short Russell 2000

Bond prices have yet to really crack, let' see if the next move gets things going

Silver is too erratic to invest. 

Wal Mart WMT is a bell weather stock to watch, it has been spectacular the last year, weakness will be further bear confirmation. 

 

 

The Wal Mart Recession Indicator

 4/1/2026

Forget the Jobs Report, Look to the WMT INdicator 

This indicator is a ration of WMT stock versus a basket of luxury goods makers. When a recession looms, WMT outpaces luxury, as it is doing now.

In 1929 San Antonio cheered its first sky scraper and Texas Largest Movie Theater, the Majestic. The tower Life building was to be the start of  larger complex of office, retail, and aparments, all downtown. The ensuing downturn cancelled all of it. Now SA is booming with downtown projects again including a  $160 M Double A baseball park and you name it, UTSA expansion, apartments, here we go again? 

Quotes From TeddyRoosevelt

 3/30/2026

 

“Knowing what's right doesn't mean much unless you do what's right.”
― Theodore Roosevelt 

 

 “Character, in the long run, is the decisive factor in the life of an individual and of nations alike.”
― Theodore Roosevelt 

 

“Nothing worth having comes easy.”
― Theodore Roosevelt

 

 “Far better it is to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs, even though checkered by failure, than to take rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy much nor suffer much, because they live in the gray twilight that knows neither victory nor defeat.” 

 

 “Nothing in the world is worth having or worth doing unless it means effort, pain, difficulty… I have never in my life envied a human being who led an easy life. I have envied a great many people who led difficult lives and led them well.”

 

 

“It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”
― Theodore Roosevelt 

 

 “The only man who never makes mistakes is the man who never does anything.”
― Theodore Roosevelt 

 

 “Never throughout history has a man who lived a life of ease left a name worth remembering.”
― Theodore Roosevelt 

 

 

A Tuesday 3/30 Snap back Rally

 3/30/2026

Recall we were looking fora rally given the over sold nature of the short term charts and here it is. The media of course says it is Trump's latest comment, we may quit while Iran controls Hormuz, how this is a cause fo celebration I do not know.'

 So far the 50 dau MA has contained the rally in the SPX, the INDU over shot it a bit. Hdge is the flip side, a bear fund of the general market. 

 We will see if there is any follow thru rally tomorrow. $26 or regular from the one-quarter level of my gauge took it to 3/4, not full, and that is making lots of Republicans nervous about the mid terms. 

Chart patterns for energy service and energy companies are starting to look toppy. This suggests the market, that amazing magic hand, is seeing at least a pause in energy panic.  

If the US stopped hostilities tomorrow, the oil price would not immediately return to $65. There is too much uncertainty for that. And if Trump leaves Iran in control of Hormuz,  that uncertainty will be permanent. 

 so far I view this as an opportunity to add to shorts, we shall see tomorrow. 

Daily hits on the weblog have nearly doubled from last month. I welcome comments about your take on the posts or how this reading is of advantageous to your investing.  

dennis.elam@att.net 

 

FED - No Danger of Contagion

 3/30/2026

A Yahoo article today

 

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Monday that he does not see a risk of contagion in private credit markets at this point that could spread to the wider financial system, though the central bank is watching the situation closely.

"We're looking for connections to the banking system, and things that might, you know, result in contagion. We don't see those right now," Powell said at a Harvard University event.

"What we see is a correction … and certainly there'll be people losing money and things like that, but it doesn't seem to have the makings of a broader systemic event," he said.

________________________________-

For months on this site, I have been warning about just sch an occurrence. Now markets are down 7-10% in about a month. Here's an example of the Private Equity market, yeah the one  Jerome is not having the makings of a broader systemic event.

 Gee Jerome while the market has recently visited all time highs, OWL is down 64% in 15 months, right no problem here! and the list includes heavy weights like Blackrock and Morgan Stanley, not the checking account bank Jamie runs, the fancy investment bank bearing J P Morgan's name. I sugges you click the link to read the article in full.

 Well It's on Page One 

Only 5% redemption allowed per quarter. 

 

When did anyone, let alone the FED Chair,  speaking at an economic event at Harvard tell the crowd to get out while they can and stuff it in T Bills like Buffet just did, uh, I don't recall. 

Here is an up lc\close ten day view of what is happening, ie watch the market not the guys paid to lie to you. 

 

I have drawn a red down trend line but looking this morning I realized the 50 day moving average has been a reliable top. Here the market  sold off for the first three days, the rallied back to the MA, and then fell hard for three days, Last week I remarked the market was oversold enough on this chart for a rally, Today, well

 High  6427 

Low 6316, 

Close  6343,  84 point drop high to low. 

Still the hourly chart PMO is trying to bottom.

Trump claims to have blown Iran away but ships fear transiting the Strait, how can that be? WTIC topped $100 today. At the Energy Conference in Houston last week, the energy secretary urged those present to drill more while assuring consumers this oil price pop is shall we say transitory, where have we heard that word before? The Energy companies wisely replied why bet on transitory?

Trump may be a successful real estate developer or a guy who has his creditors too fearful to repossess. He is not an expert in manufacturing or energy. Hence the tariff idea of bringing back Mfg or lowering energy costs is up in smoke.  

I remain short in PSQ, HDGE and others looking for a rally to add more shorts.  

______________________

The markets are running away to the downside in a third Elliott Wave, and so the question, where to add?

One of the oldest ideas in adding is dollar averaging. Admit we do not know all hte highs and lows in advance. Decide on how much in total to commit, then divide in to sections in a timely fashion and commit equal amounts of money thru specific time periods. The idea is to buy fewer shares at high prices and more at lower prices. Whatever the longer trend is down, now matter what James McIntosh says in the WSj 

Trump's Ability to Calm Markets Fades

 3/29/2026

this article  uses the term put, in brokerage terms that is a bet a market is going lower. I think the article means his ability to put whatever market where he wants it is fading, indeed. Major markets are down about9-11%, media talk for a correction. This site has been telling you that since NDX high 10/29/2025. The media will be shocked, see Capt Renault in Casablanca, when theyreach - 20%.

 

Trouble in Vegas - An Early Warning Sign

 3/28/226

Trouble in Vegas portens broader economic problems 

Yes the high capital investments in Vegas require lots of volume - every week the  planes must unload thousands of tourists, a slack in the numbers is big trouble in a high over head operation.

 

It reminds me of the Riverwalk in SA. I would guess the rents on restuarants are nose bleed high, a slight drop in business where the tables must turn so many times each day cannot be sustained. 

Barbara chalmers Stals $29M from prominent Texas Family

 3/28./2026

 

https://www.gma-cpa.com/blog/texas-sized-fraud-bookkeeper-embezzles-29m-from-texas-family

Here is a student analysis of this fraud.

 

The case of Barbara Chalmers clearly connects to what we learned this past week about check fraud. It shows how easy it is for fraud to continue without proper controls and when there is too much trust and not enough monitoring. As a trusted bookkeeper, Chalmers was able to write at least 175 fraudulent checks to herself and deposit them into her personal accounts without raising suspicion for a long time. One major flag in this situation was the repeated checks written to the same person over time. Another warning sign was the lack of independent review of bank statements and check images. If someone had been regularly monitoring these records, the unusual payments and patterns may have been discovered much earlier. Chalmers also created false documents to hide the true cash balances and provided misleading information to tax preparers misstating the year-end cash on-hand numbers for the various accounts she was embezzling. This case shows why it is important to separate duties so that no single person controls authorizing, recording and reviewing transactions. It also shows why businesses should require dual signatures for large checks and ensure that bank statements are reviewed by someone other than the person handling the money. As Chapter 6 brings out; reviewing bank statements, check images and reconciliations on a regular basis can help detect suspicious activity early.

______________________

The article lists several ways to prevent this kind of theft.  

I would add enforced vacations for all employees, family and third party.  A better idea is to have an independent CPA reconcile the bank statements. Presence of an independent is in itself a warning to would be embezzlers. Notice th is was not a young person looking for a quick gain. Ms. Chalmers will no doubt do prison time at age 74 but the money will still be gone. This is also a warning that untrained individuals like Ms. Collins, can be fooled. It is amazing this amount of money escaped her attention.  

the State of the Markets

 3/28/2026

Stocks came into 2026 riding AI momentum, a more stable trade environment, and hopes for lower interest rates. The S&P 500 hit a record high in late January.

With two trading days left in the first quarter, the situation looks significantly more challenging.

The stock market looks broken, and it's far from clear as to how to fix it.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) is down over 7% for the year. The Nasdaq (^IXIC) is in correction territory. The VIX (^VIX)— known as Wall Street's "fear index" — is trading at its highest level in a year, cresting the 30 mark.

Bond yields (^TNX) are soaring. Gold (GC=F) is off $500 from its record high reached in January. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is languishing near $65,000. International stocks are underperforming US stocks once again. And markets have taken the possibility of rate cuts this year completely off the table; a rate hike in 2026 now seems more likely than a cut.

Geopolitical headlines continue to overwhelm the news flow, but little this week seemed to arc toward either outcome on the energy front. And experts from inside the industry still think the risks from this conflict are being understated by markets.

_____________________

those are the facts , now the expert analysis

______________________

On Thursday, one of our favorite market voices — Truist Wealth chief investment officer Keith Lerner — did just about this, telling clients in a note that "measured cash deployment is warranted."

This is wealth adviser speak for: "Don't be afraid of the stock market."

Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo, argued the market's reaction to the US-Iran conflict is an overreaction.

(Disclosure: Yahoo is a portfolio company of funds managed by affiliates of Apollo Global Management.)

"Markets are overreacting to what will likely be a 4- to 6-week period of volatility, which will ultimately result in 50 years of stability in oil markets, supply chains and geopolitics," Sløk wrote.

In his view, inflation's rise will be temporary, rates will head lower, and the AI tailwind for the US economy won't be taken off course by this conflict.

An outline of what's happening in markets right now doesn't have much good to offer, but putting it all down in one place does offer a glimpse of what is needed to turn things around.

And the Sløk outline, let's call it, says that what risk assets — the stock market, bitcoin, etc. — need to see in order to work again is, at a minimum, stabilizing oil prices, preferably a decline in oil prices. Until then, we hold on.

Myles Udland is Yahoo Finance's Head of News.

 

 

Telescoping

 3/27/2026

Telescoping is the process of looking at the near term and then stepping back to weekly and monthly to get a longer perspective of what the market is telling us.  

Daily 

Weekly

 Monthly

 

Daily = April is Liberation Day, Trump's sock market crash from his ill founded tariffs, his advisers prevailed leading to a tariff back off and a rally into Oct thru Feb 1. 

Weekly - There is a gap at  20,500, let's look for an interruption of the downtrend, but the momentum is building to the April low.

Monthly

Monthly charts are far slower than day or weekly. So a change in trend is significant. 

 the box on left highlights the move above the PMO averages. the red arrow at right highlights the movw below that average, ie we have a long time to go before the cross over to the upside. 

Hourly

 

I can count one down, two up, three down, foor sideways, and now a fifth cown, let's wait for a bigger commitment. this should lead to an A B C correction to the upside. 

 30 minute - yes we are close to a short term trend change

 

Counter Trend Rally Ending

 3/24/2026

INDU Hourly

 The early rally faded to close negative. Note INDU is still below the down trend line. This should about do it for the counter trend rally in all major INDU SPX NDX indexes. Note hourly PMO is topping.

Sprtt 

 Sprott Silver, the actual metal, is nearing the low of an A B C correction from its all time high at 12 for sliver but 37+ fpr PSLV. Yes risky but I am watching for a low.

TBF Weekly is just getting going, add positions

 More on Wed after close, notice no one is talking bear market but a few of us.

GAO Disclaims Ooinion on US Balance Sheet

 3/24/2026

GAO Disclaims Opinion on US Balance Sheet 

Disclaimers are rare in that they do no one any good. But here we are.  

 The Government Accountability Office (GAO) issued a disclaimer of opinion on the U.S. government’s FY 2025 financial statements — the 29th consecutive year it has been unable to determine whether the statements are fairly presented. This is primarily due to serious, ongoing financial management problems at the Department of Defense and weaknesses in accounting for interagency transactions.

Meet the TEsLA Semi EV / Nisan Leaf

 3/23/2026

Jay Leno Drives the EV Semi 

Tesla  claims  500 miles on the heavier version and 350 range on the in  town version.

I have been skeptical but am coming around. The EV really eliminates a lot of maintenance and complexity, consider what is eliminated in a car or truck

 Radiator, fans, hoses, water pump, anti-freeze and water

Gasoline or diesel tank, fuel lines, fuel pump

Fuel injectors, air cleaner

Exhaust manifold, pipes, muffler, catalytic convertor

Alternator

Oil pan, oil pump, oil filter, oil

Nissan Gets it Right with 3rd Gen Leaf Nissan Leaf Video this is cool!

 

A Monday Snap Back Rally

 3/23/2026

After four weeks of negative closes, a vigorous snap bakc rally occurred today. It reached INDU 1,000 but settled lower by day's end.  such rallies are spectacular and assure the bulls the long term rally is intact. 

 Today's rally see far right, kissed the lower boundary but did not close over it.  INDU and SPX did not come as far.  The news was more dithering by Trump on Iran. No doubt those running in November are screaming for an end to this and he seems to be giving them that.  A mistake as the WSJ pointed out today but...

 the rally may extend another day or two before the decline resumes. 

The pullback in  PSQ was not remarkable.

 Bond yields pulled back modestly the target reamains 5.02%.

Gold and silver may have had an exhaustion selling climax, we shall see, as mentioned these are barely trade able markets

 

More tomorrow 

TehTrouble with Mainstream Financial Advice

 3/20/2026

 

Here  is the latest from Sitka Pacific, a financial advisor and manager 

The letter is typical of mainstream advice. The discussion is on the latest political development, tariffs, and of course the FED. Actually they do display a very germane graph, and then ignore its message.

 the message is that the 39 year cycle of interest rates has bottomed. The trend is now up

Rates rose from 1942 to  1981, rates fell from 1981 right in March 2020. The Ten Year Treasury Note bottomed at a .5% miniscule yield. In six years it is already 4.3%. the chart shows global yields which are lower than the US with its $39 T admitted debt but possibly $100T considering entitlements.  Actually the next comment is the most important in the letter. 

 In 2025, there were very few markets which detracted from the performance of a globally diversified portfolio. Such a golden market environment is relatively uncommon, and it is unlikely it will be repeated any time soon.

Exactly 2025 was the fifth wave of many.  My last post listed the market highs and dates since last October 29, 2025. I uite agree that the bull market of April 2025 to thisebruary will be repeated any tie soon. 

 

Yet if market history is any guide, the pivot that unfolded during the first half of this decade ushered in a market environment that will last for some time to come. Leadership changes in equity market and currency performance, like we have seen recently, usually lead to a market regime that endures 8–10 years. Pivots in bond yields and inflation, as we have also seen in recent years, have, in the past, led to a new market regime that endures for a decade, or longer.

We anticipated these shifts in the market landscape, and while there will certainly be volatility along the way, our approach is well suited to this new market environment.

 I quite agree this is a regime that will last  8-10 years, but not the one they anticipate. 

INDU is down 9.3% in a calendar 40 days, a new regime indeed. 

thanks for reading ProfessorElam, it should safeguard your wealth unlike mainstream services.  

 

the Unintended Consequences of the Iran Conflict

 3/20/2026

M ajor General Paul Eaton 

 

Internal Audit at the Missions Ball Park

 3/20/2026

Register here: https://cvent.me/2mboa1.

 

 

 

Markets Continue to Fall

 3/20/2026

Markets Continue to Fall

 

For months this column has warned of an impending top. Tops finally occurred as follows, NDX 10/29/2025, SPX 1/28/226, and INDU 2/10/2026. All three have closed below their respective 200 day moving averages. This statistic is featured on most popular charting programs. As it is widely known, it has probably lost some of its value. I thought the market would rally as it is quite oversold but now, down again today. Like most days, the decline is modest but unrelenting. There is little to no concern  among  investors about the decline.

The INDU is down 4,749 points from its February 10 high or 9.3% in 40 calendar days. The media asserts this to the Iran Conflict and there is some truth to that but, notice the conflict began February 28, well after the highs cited above.

The Iran Conflict (what should we call it?) is not popular with the EU, not our war, nor particularly with the American public. One reason is the lack of a Reagan type Tear This Wall Down Mr. Gorbachev speech, then delivered in Berlin. This week Iran executed one of their 19 year-old wrestling champ, one of thousands now recently put to death. Throw off Trump comments like ‘we may bomb again for the fun of it’ do nothing to rally support. Unless the tone changes from sounding like a 12-year old playing a computer game to a serious War Time president, expect Trump ratings to continue falling.

Interest rates have begun to rise. The Ten-Year Treasury Note jumped 2.3% today, Friday, to 4.38%. This will eventually surpass the previous high at 5.03%. Note that that both bond stock prices are falling together.  Kevin Hassett, economic adviser to Trump, continues to ignore or claim this is transitory, have we heard that before?  This will ratchet mortgage rates higher as the ten-year rate is benchmark for mortgages.

Despite Iran claims of $180 Brent Oil, all things considered, the market is taking all this in stride. Current April futures trade at $97.69 for West Texas, up $1.55 today. November futures, important as this is the date of the midterm elections, trade at $79.05. Today that price has dropped 63 cents. A lower price seven months out suggests the market sees an end to the conflict and a resumption of more normal prices. Admittedly, $79 is well above pre-February 28 prices. But distant prices are significantly lower not higher than today.

Silver had had a significant sell-off from $96 to $69.35. today. It is down a modest $2 while gold is off $50.  Prices may decline further but it is too late to bet on lower prices. These markets are only for robust investors, read gamblers, given the volatility.

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