2/13/2026
Fist full of Dollars
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4niv522mbtM&list=RD4niv522mbtM&start_radio=1
For a Few Dollars More
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DT1NJwEi6nw&list=RDDT1NJwEi6nw&start_radio=1
Good Bad Ugly
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=enuOArEfqGo&list=RDenuOArEfqGo&start_radio=1
2/13/2026
Transports Take a Hit
Charles Dow first published his Industrial and Transportation index in the mid-1880s. the Industrials manufactured goods and the Transportation companies moved them. Cable TV business shows detail for the Industrials, SPX, NASD, and NDX. The Transportation and Utility index are not quoted on the ticker. Typically the Transports lead the direction of the market.
Yesterday, Thursday, a former Karaoke machine seller, is now a supply chain guru. Algorythm Holdings announced that Artificial Intelligence would improv efficiency in the trucking business. The market reaction was immediate.
C H Robinson dropped15%. Expeditors International dropped 13%. The overall Transport Index dropped 5%, recovering to minus 4%. The DOW dropped 1.3% or 670 points. The NASD dropped 2%. Understand these are not year to date drops, these are one day declines. Markets are modestly higher today. There is always a fundamental event to validate the technical picture of the market.
I have warned of over valuation for months but this is the first real warning. The situation is quite similar to the dot.com peak of March 2000. Then the NASD tacked on 3,500 points from 1998 to 2000. That was on top of the 1500 points which took from 1982 to 1998 Maximum mood comes at the end of a market run. The thinking was that every dot.com would be wildly successful. They weren’t. The NASD then lost 75% falling to 1500 two years later.
This time Nvidia and the Magnificent Seven stocks are all the rage. AI is the new dot.com mania. Now an ETF of the Magnificent Seven is down 10% this year. A clear sell signal will be when the major indexes drop below the November low.
Home sales fell 8.4% in January. Snowstorms and sagging confidence led to the drop.
The energy news is ala bout Russia’s diminished prospects. Ural crude is now trading at a 25% discount to Brent. Ural crude is now priced at $45, well below the $59 needed to balance the Russian budget. It is estimated that there are 143 M Russian barrels floating in ships around the world.US and European sanctions have closed the Indian markets. Buyers are extracting the heavy discount when and if there are sales. If unsold, Russia will have to halt production due to lack of storage. The bottom line is that revenue is not enough to support the oil fields. Russia really has no consumer economy, just crude oil. It will be more difficult to sustain the Ukraine war. Things look bleak in Cuba. Cut off from Venezuela oil and set adrift by Russia, everything from electricity to gasoline to food is in short supply. The US plan to regain the Western Hemisphere is working.
www.professorelam.blogspot.com
2/12/2026
Transport Index
Here are the two big losers
Expeditors down 13.25%, off the lows,
Already this year CH 11 for Saks, First Brands
Today Blackrock drops $400M on a private equity loan see prior post
Tricolor CH 7 overnight, forget Plan B
EY issues a critical audit matter over Meta moving a $27 B data center off the balance sheet, the last big company to do such was Enron with its Special Purpose Enties SPE
Sudden bankruptcies, stocks drop 14% in a day and these are not crypto or MEME stocks, real companies.
NDX
2/12/2024
I would say he is splitting hairs not blaming due diligence, more follow up he says
The facts below
2/12/2026
Wednesday Feb 18, 5 30 - 8 00 PM San Antonio Institute of Management Accountants will have a
two part program The first hour will deal with managing family owned business. The second hour
will present the current state of the SA accounting job market. That hour should be of great value to all
accounting students. Click on the link to see the program and register.
2/11/2026
Texas State Board of Public Accountancy
Webinar for Texas Accounting Educators,
CPA Exam Applicants, and Accounting Students:
CPA Exam and Certification Pathways for Texas |
February 27, 2026 | 10:00 AM (Central time) |
The Texas State Board of Public Accountancy invites Texas accounting educators and advisors, along with CPA Exam applicants and accounting students, to participate in an important webinar focused on recent changes to the CPA Exam and certification pathways in Texas.
Why Educators and Advisors Should Attend
This session provides timely insights to help educators advise students and stay current on administrative changes to requirements for the CPA Exam and certification.
Why CPA Exam Applicants and Accounting Students Should Attend
This session provides information to assist applicants and students understand the education and work experience requirements for the CPA Exam and certification.
2/10/2026
Summation Index for NASD looks like it is bottoming as well.
At top RSI is certainly extended. PMO at bottom is high but it has been higer before breaking over. Trend is near vertical which is NOT the time to buy. Strange times. More tomorrow
2/6/2026
Dartmouth President Sian Leah Beilock’s op-ed “Is a Four-Year Degree Worth It?” (Jan. 26) is a respectable start at transforming campuses across America. What is missing is the proper customer orientation. If we consider the customer to be potential employers, it is easier to see where universities must focus attention.
Employers value professional certifications—such as Chartered Financial Analyst or Professional Engineer certification. While a four-year degree now often demonstrates merely acceptable attendance, a certification demonstrates skills, acumen and judgment that portend value in the workplace. Additionally, employers value work experience—internships directly related to a student’s career path. In many cases, such experiences are prerequisites for professional certifications.
Universities should focus more attention in integrating industry standards of competence into their curriculum. Many have already done so. These will be the ones that survive the looming market shakeout.
Dean Em. Charles Crespy
Central Michigan University
Mount Pleasant, Mich.
Dow Complex Notches New high
There is a strong upward cycle into next week. That cycle has taken the DOW Industrials and Transports to a new high. The Industrials have risen an amazing 883 points just 75 minutes into today’s session. The NDX, NASD 100, has held support at the previous mid-November low and is up 1.21% this Friday morning. The SPX has held above its mid-December low and is up 1.29%
The AI Innovation and Tech ETF is BAI. It just dropped form 36 to 32 and has rebounded to 33.67. The idea is that Artificial Intelligence will take over computer coding making these companies the new version of eight track tape manufacturers. The SOX semi-conductor index has long been the best indicator of the health of the chip makers. It has soared from the April 2025 low of 3500 to 7886. This reflects the mania over AI chips. Nvidia, the leading AI chip maker sold of from 192 to 172 but is also rallying today to 183.
The bearish case is definitely on hold.
I read that various Wall Street types think Trump’s pick of Kevin Marsh will steady the Fed’s independence. It is known that Trump thinks over night rates should be at 1-2%, not the current 3.75%. Anyone who fails to do Trump’s bidding does not hang around for long. Ask any of his four National Security Advisors from his first term. First Brands is an auto parts maker of well known brands like Michelin tires and FRAM oil filters. After running through $1.1 B earlier this month, further loans were not forthcoming. The auto makers themselves have had to furnish financing to keep supply lines open. Now the CEO is under indictment for double selling invoices, some of which were apparently fake.
The ten-year Treasury Note yield bottomed in late November around 3.94%, It has risen to a recent high of 4.3%. the last few days it has backed off to 4.21%. Recall the 39-year low in interest rates occurred in March 2020 with the Note yielding a mere .5%. the rise off that low has been impressive. Given the cycle low, it is hard to see lower rates ahead.
The world is awash in debt. In 1960 global debt was $290 billion. Today it is more than $40 trillion. This is a 135x increase. At the same time the spread between corporate bond and Ten-Year Treasury yields is the lowest in 28 years. There is the lowest fear of default in years while we have more debt than ever.
The good news for the Basin is crude oil at $64.05. Energy stocks have been front and center in the latest trend that trashed chip stocks with war cycles brewing in February look for stronger crude prices
Professorelam.blogspot.com
2/5/2026
2/5/2026
Okay so he was not informed of the consequences of his plea, is this guy a lawyer or what.
Let's follow this.
2/5/2026
Michealangelo's drawing of a foot
This is manic top of the bubble thinking.
2/5/2026
Best,
Mysti Frazier
Assistant Director for Internships
Mays Center for Experiential Learning and Community Engagement
Texas A&M University-San Antonio
Science and Technology Building, Suite 111
210-784-1467 | mfrazier@tamusa.edu | www.tamusa.edu/mays
Pronouns: she/her/hers
Woo | Communication | Strategic | Includer | Individualization
2.4.2026
The tech heavy NDX lead the way up it is now leading the way down.It is taking out the Jan 20 low already.Once it takes out the Nov 21 low, it is as the legal dept at First Brands put it, game over. The DOW has held up making a new high because it has way fewer tech stocks than NDX or SPX, DOW is price weighted. The DOW will hold up longer than the NDX or SPX, this also allows the 'experts' to claim the market is making new highs as tech stocks tank.
2/3/2026
I wrote recently that the markets exhibit a broadening top. Early buyers are selling to the late comers, and so we see up and down action. We had more of that today. Markets dropped and then the DOW rallied late afternoon.
Tech NDX led the market up and will lead it down. Notice the NDX did not rebound as the INDU did.
I have been writing about a long term top for months, we are very close to that, look a the distribution patterns, one day the early buyers will have sold all their stock to the late comers, and then there will be no net buyers and the market will simply tank. If you are long well rather sell six minutes early than six minutes late, ie at way lower prices.
2/1/2026
Gold and silver finally topped with the biggest drop since 1980.
The HJouston Astrodome was completed in 1965 at a cost of $35M, I was designed for 50,000 but swelled to 68,000 for a George Strait concert in 2002. Now in San Antonio, the new Spurs basketball arena will seat 15,000 and cost $1.2 billion. That is a 34x increase, pretty much a devaluation of the dollar. I think that explains the move to gold and silver.
Stocks DOW Industrials
Democrats won and open state senate seat in the DFW area this week. Democrats will come out for a small election like that to do anything to display their distaste for Trump. Republicans show up for teh big races but not the little ones, and one shot races like this. It is still an indicator of what will happen in November.
1/30/2026
As Trump starts his own Peace Group (uh what is Putin doing in a PeaceGroup?) he starves the UN.
Developing
1/30/2026
Stocks and Metals Decline
For months this column has warned of an over-heated market. As I write Friday morning, the Dow and NDX are off about 1%, the SPX about .75%. Go dl is down $460 today. This has happened before in January only to see a recovery but this time really does look different. A downtrend is forming and momentum indicators have turned to the downside. Real conformation will come with an SPX weekly close under the January 21 low around 6,800. Additional confirmation would be a NDX close under its January 21 low around 25,000.
Qualitative indicators of a positive social mood top abound. Here are a few.
This week the Trump Account was announced with quite a bang. This will award newborns 1,000 to invest in the stock and bond markets. I cannot find any word on where the money will be or how one invests. Or what keeps the parents from yanking the money out.
This summer two Republican and Democrat Senators introduced a bill to save social security by, you guessed it, investing in the stock and bond market.
Yesterday, Charles Payne, host of Making Money with Charles Pane, offered his book, Unbreakable Investor , for free. Well, you do have to pay the $9.95 shipping cost.
Mutual fund cash is at the lowest level since the 1960s.
All these actions are emblematic of how positive social mood forgets past events such as the dot.com melt down into 2002 or the sub-prime melt down o pf 2007-2009. Trump Accounts and investing social security money at those times would have been a great idea, but negative mood at those times made sure it did not happen.
Meanwhile look at the recent bankruptcy trends.
Saks sold $2.2 B in junk bonds in December 2024. Within months it was slow paying vendors. This month it filed for Chapter Bankruptcy protection.
Tricolor automobile business went poof into Chapter 7 liquidation overnight.
First Brand former CEO has been indicted for fraud by the Federal Government. First Brands received a $1.1 B injection earlier this month. But last week its legal department called game over without another $600 M. No one offered so now the auto companies needing those parts are supporting the firm. The Feds allege the Ceo factored fabricated invoices to buyers who now hold worthless paper.
Notice a pattern here?
Speaking of memory loss, Britain seems to have forgotten how Margaret Thatcher saved the country. A headline reads Britain is Committed to Stagnation. China struggles with deflation as the real estate market declines.
On the bright side, crude oil has moved to $64.61. Cold weather and the threat of attacks on Iran seem to be fueling the rise.
As the Sergeant used to say on Hill Street Blues, be careful out there.
professorelam@blogspot.com
1/30/2026
Meet The Firms – TXCPA San Antonio Student Auxiliary
Date: February 6, 2026
Time: 5:30–7:30 PM
Location: La Quinta 4431 Horizon Hill Blvd San Antonio, TX 78229
About the Event: Meet the Firms is a free networking event for students interested in accounting and business careers. Attendees will have the opportunity to meet firms that are currently hiring, explore career opportunities, make valuable professional connections, and engage directly with employers.
Cost: Free for students.
Student Membership: Students may join TXCPA as a student member for free. Learn more: https://www.tx.cpa/become-a-cpa/become-a-student-member
Event Registration: Register for the event here: https://www.tx.cpa/events/event-details/?eventId=50cf8369-0078-c298-9f9c-0b4902aa5637
Accommodation Statement: Persons with disabilities needing accommodations should contact student.life@tamusa.edu or (210) 784-1329 at least five to seven days in advance.
1/29/2026
Closely examine these charts.The DOW sold off a bit the SPX, NDX NASD 100, SPX, NASD COMPQ sold off a great deal. I have been talking bout a top for weeks and months. I truly believe we are now there. The action is metals is not normal. there are serious geo political problems, Trump's insane insult to Canada et al, Ukraine, Diego Garcia yes really, see WSJ front page article on China deflation today. $5,000 gold and whatever silver is today is not a good sing. Trump says he is happy with the Dollar down 8%, hello Argentina.
We are at a confluence of events, top stocks, oh did you notice crude oil is now $65, drfense stocks are up, conflict is on the way,
More tomorrow, first my weekly colum, longer analysis this weekend.
1/29/2026\
I pointed out yesterday that optimism abounds at market tops so now we see the creation of Trump Accounts so even babies can invest.
Two senators a Dem and a Republican have Two Senators Dem and GOP have an investing plan to save social security.The plan was proposed in July 2025.
If my predictions of a market top in stocks are even remotely correct this would of course be a disaster. Government has a pattern of doing that like suing RCA in 1929, IBM in 1966, and MSFT in the last years of the Clinton administration. All instances preceeding market tops with the drop coming quickly thereafter. As said yesterday such ideas never hatch at the dot.com bottom in 2002 or the sub prime bottom in They only occur amid the euphoria of a mania top.
Charles Payne on FOX Business TV wants to make his Unbreakable Ivestor book free, well plus 9.95 shipping. He is so sure he is right he is offering it to all the viewers. Again, only at a market top.
Link for Tump Account1/28/2026
In an attempt not necesarily to win but not to lose the mid-terms. we have tax reduction and now Trump Accounts. The US govt will put a one time $1,000 into this account. Firms are stepping tup to add to the account, motably Michael Dell. It is not clear to me if this becomes say a Fidelityor Schwab account. I assume no withdrawals are possible. It is a buy the vote device.
This would be a great idea at the dot.com low of 2002 or the sub prime low of March 2009. But at DOW 50,000, not so much. Should the markets crater and I still think that is more likely this will not be well regarded, at least if people do anything other than T Bills.
February Silver
1/27/2026
Silver spiked again o #112. It recorded an inside day usually a sign of a continuation pattern. This straight up action suggest speculation laid on a lack of silver supply ( all those guys on the business channels finally luck out). No time to add. But with higher prices still expected will we get a sharp sell off to shake out the weak hands? Platinum and copper appear to be selling off and that does not bode well for gold and silver. Gold likes round numbers and we have one in $5,000.
DOW
I do think the next two weeks will tell the tale so to speak for the stock markets.
1/26/2026
Yes the Dow was up 313 points today but a strange thing happened.
DWSH and HDGE, both bear funds were up
Breadth is narrowing
1/26/2026
A cave painting in Indonesia is estimated to be 67,800 years old
This is astonishing. It means that nothing much happened in terms of organized civilization until Persia and Egypt, a relative recent 5,500 yeas ago. Modern society dates from the Industrial Revolution, the railroad, and the telegraph. that meant we could travel and communicate over great distance. Just the last century commercial air flight occurred. Imagine how long people literally stumbled around just trying to find something to eat.
1/25/2026
Tricolor went straight to Ch 7.
First Brands is not doing much better.
Jamie Dimon's Morgan Chase lost big on Tricolor, his comment when you see one cocka roach....
First Brands will die without a $600 M lifeline
Yes I would call that not much better.
First Brands begins winding down key units
After receiving a $1.1 B loan at the start of anuary, teh needed $600 M is not materializing
Notice how fast these two companies fell apart
First Brands Founder Indicted for Fraud
The entire scheme is falling apart, read all these posts do you see the order of what is happening.
1/25/2026
Markets finally turned in the summer of 1982. The long bear market of 1966 or 1973 to 1982 had finally ended. Even then the DOW was about 800, lower than the 1,000 tops of 1966 and 1973. Imterest rates were finally abating after their 36 year cycle high in 1981. See FED description her. An 11% unemployment rate, now that is negative mood! Today it is about 4.4%.
10$ CDs would soon be a think of the past. But rich dividends abounded in the stock market. Hence money began to flow from CDs to stocks.
lHere are a few negative signs.
NYC nurse strike in 14 th day.
Two shot and killed in Minneapolis, note Neither the Mayor or Governor is trying to calm thigs down, just the opposite. The WH cannot back down or it will never be able to enter another Dem controlled sanctuary city. Never mind whose side you are on we are tracking mood.
Severe storm across 35 states. Violent weather often accompanies a market high. In 1989 Japan had a typhoon, hurricane here as the market topped.
Her in San Antonio voters narrowly approved 52-48 $800 M for a $1.2 B basketball arena. A letter in the paper today questions the deal. This happened in 1929 when the tower Life building was completed.
the rest of the planned down town expansion was cancelled due to the Depression.
The Majestic Theater was completed that same summer. It was the largest theater in Texas and continued to be until 1975.
Canada's PM declares that small to medium nations need to create their own place at the table or end up on the menu, a clever phrase indeed. Trump of course threatened 100% tariffs. Regarding his Chinese foray, the PM replied he had to take the world as it is no as we want it to be.
hWhite House launches bid to save Melania movie. Melania will ring the bell to open the stock exchange one day this week, she will also appear on Maria Bartiromo's morning show.
tricolor went straight to CH 7 bankruptcy, like over nigth.
First Brands avoided CH 7 bt tanked as well.
Jamie Dimon commented when you see one cockaroach....
Two horror movies are no minated for best picture, Sinners with a record 16 nominations, and teh latest re make of Frankenstein. Exorcist was the dfirst horror film to be nominated for best pictuer.
It garnered ten no minations. And yes it won best picture. Nothing positive abut that or two no minated this year.
General Collateral Financing GCF is a repurchase agreement where the two parties do not know one another. This accounts for $5 trillion of the repo market. The idea is that Treasuries are used but the collateral is not specified. Gee that sounds just like the Archegos fraud which bankrupted Credit Suisse.
Multiple banks loaned Bill Hwang billions having no idea of his or their total exposure. He posted only 15% of the funds all else was borrowed. When CBS Viacom dropped more than 15%, he was wiped out. Morgan and Goldman got out that Friday, Credit Suisse was not so lucky.
We shall see how this unwinds.
1/25/2026
Trevor Milton misrepresented Nicola trucks
Was Charlie Javice a good person who did bad things?
I will present the case in class this next Saturday and you can decide.
But the evidence suggests she new exactly what she was doing.
Elizabeth Holmes, I would have done things differently. But she still claims a failure is not a crime.
As we read various fraud cases you will see stark similarities between them. The Nidola, Frank, and Theranos cases are quite similar. CEOs falsely claiming something would work when clearly it did not.
1/24/2026
A Treasure Trove of information including all Warren's annual letters
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC.
3555 Farnam Street
Omaha, NE 68131
Official Home Page
1/24/2026
IBM
This is a very interesting IBM site about all things business and technology.
IBM nearly went the way of Unisys but Lou Gerstner startingin April 1993 brought it back to life. \
IBM stayed with the main frames and then the first IBM MS DOS table top computer. They sat by and watched Bill Gates' MSFT dwarf IBM. Now much smaller than MSFT but now into more than just hardware. Another story on how successful firms get lost.
Nvidia
Alphabet - Google
Products but also lots of informaiton
Apple and MSFT were just sales sites
Palantir
1/23/2026
NVDA
Would you buy this stock now? Here is the hottest stock of the entire tech mania. Okay it fell into Liberation Day as did everything else. Momentum indicators RSI top and PMO are turning down not up. I have looked for a top for some time now. Metals have reached outer space territory, only Google is up from mid year among the Mag 7, thirty year bond is still well below its H & S neckline, the US Dollar is down again today by .85 of a point, after Lutnick's booed down performance, now wonder.
Venezuela is over, there might be a Ukraine deal, why on earth is Trump including Putin in his Peace Board, Greenland is over, we have the convergence of many things, oh yes Davos is over, see my previous post. All of these things are converging.
US Dollar
Silver, market in vertical position no further analysis is possible. SIlver options are at insane levels as gamblers bet on a continued rally. The correction will be swift and long lasting.
1/23/2026
Nat Gas Spikes to $5.20
Natural gas began the week at $3.00. With the the prediction of an Arctic blast across 35 states natural gas leaped 66% to $5+. This takes out the resistance at the December high of $5. In 2022 gas hit $10. The cold weather is expected to last through January. Point being, prices could rise much higher. Gas prices are soaring across Europe as well.
Crude oil is rising but not as fast. Today March 2026 WTIC is up $1.72 to $61.07. This has also helped the energy service industry.
Halliburton HAL has jumped form $25 in late November to $35 today.
Schlumberger SLB in the same period has moved from $35 to $51. Both firms have been cutting costs and trimming employees. Halliburton has a forward price earnings ratio of 14 with Schlumberger at 16. In today’s frothy market this is most reasonable. Transocean has come alive rising to $4.86. The largest offshore driller in the world is trading at a bargain 64% of book value. It’s not a 1979 boom return for the Permian Basin but this looks like a big improvement.
Nobody feels secure in today’s world.
Serbia President Aleksandar Vucic
The White House claims Trump’s Davos appearance went well. Not so fast. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick addressed the group one evening. His remarks so stung participant s that EU Central Bank President Christine Lagarde walked out of the event. Lutnick was heckled and jeered to the point that the event was cut short, no dessert for this group! Trump went from threatening Europe with tariffs to backing off saying he had a framework for Greenland. He then claimed success at no cost. Translation, he is where he started which is being able to put bases anywhere in Greenland he wants. But trust has been fractured. This column could be filled with comments of various EU nations as all are wary of what Trump might do next. He seems to revel in chaos and disdains peace and quiet. He appears to prefer the gallon of vinegar to the spoon of honey.
QQ , the ETF for the NASD, made a significant spike low this week on the Tuesday sell-off. This suggests a bottom which can be traded. I have warned of a top but we are not there yet.
In hard times people like horror movies. Sinners, a combination of gangster, musical, and vampire horror has received 16 Academy nominations. This is higher than the fourteen garnered by three movies since the awards began. The latest re-make of Frankenstein has also been nominated for best movie. Markets are at all-time highs but mood is trending to the negative.
Dennis.elam@att.net
1/22/2026
Hello everyone,
I hope you and your families are prepared for this weekend’s weather. It is shaping up to be a cold one.
You are invited to join us on Thursday, January 29 at noon for our Accounting Careers & Education Committee Meeting. We are excited to kick off the new year with energy and fresh ideas.
A quick reminder that our
scholarship applications are still open. Please encourage eligible students to apply. For more information, click link below!
https://www.tx.cpa/sanantonio/students/scholarships
Also coming up on Friday, February 6 is our Meet the Firms event. If you know of any firms that would like to participate, please have them reach out to me by phone or email. Additional details are included in the attachment. PLEASE encourage students to sign up here for free!
https://www.tx.cpa/events/event-details/?eventId=50cf8369-0078-c298-9f9c-0b4902aa5637 On the attachment there are QR codes students can use also!
If you can make it, we are looking forward to seeing you on Thursday. Stay safe and warm this weekend!
Best,
Jennifer Jeanes
TXCPA San Antonio
830-431-1969
